From the perspective of the industry: the strong are always strong, the integration of quality and effect, brand customer accumulation + high-quality media resources + technology fully benefit. We believe that the marketing service industry is still a strong and permanent pattern, under the trend of integration of quality and effect, brand advertisers continue to migrate online to become an important engine of industry scale growth, and the mobile end will continue to grow rapidly. enterprises with rich accumulation of brand customers and smooth channels of downstream high-quality media resources in the industrial chain are expected to fully benefit. On the other hand, enterprises with accumulation in data, technology and industry will have more advantages in quality promotion. At the same time, endogenesis + denotation is still an important means of industry development and integration.
From the company's point of view: comprehensively improve the Internet integrated marketing, give play to collaborative advantages, enhance ARPU value and penetration, extension sustainable period. Tianlong has only been laid out around the goal of the Internet Integrated Marketing Group since the transformation of digital marketing in 2014, and the acquisition of flash technology further strengthens the company's promotion strength on the mobile side. The company has accumulated many brand customers in automotive, fast consumer and home chemical industries on the client side, and carried out long-term cooperation with Baidu, Inc. and other head search engines and high-quality APP on the channel end, and the layout of customer + channel and media + big data service has achieved initial results, and the pattern of Internet integrated marketing will help the company to open up new customers and improve customer ARPU value. It is optimistic that the company will continue to lay out high-quality companies around the industrial chain, and the extension is still worth looking forward to.
From the perspective of performance and valuation: the performance is over-growth and the valuation is on the low side. Judging from the bet performance of the target of M & An in 2015, the overall over-completion of the bet performance was 27%. We believe that with the continuous improvement of the company's integrated marketing industry chain, the expansion of new customers and the further development of stock customers will help to improve the company's comprehensive gross profit level, and the follow-up performance is expected to maintain rapid growth. The current stock price corresponds to about 32 times the valuation level, which is lower than about 40 times the valuation level of the same industry; at the same time, the current stock price has a certain margin of safety near the employee shareholding price.
Earnings forecast and valuation: considering the listing of additional shares and assuming matching financing based on the current stock price of 90%, we estimate that the diluted EPS of the company for 16-18 years is 0.96,1.11,1.37 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponds to 32,27,22 times PE. Combined with market conditions, the company will be valued at 40 times in 2016, with a target price of 38.4, covered for the first time, and given a "highly recommended" rating.
Risk hints: industry development and corporate integration are not up to expectations, epitaxial mergers and acquisitions are more difficult.
