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【兴业证券】普邦园林:业绩出现大幅下滑,现金流有所恶化

興業證券 ·  Apr 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company achieved revenue of 2,433 billion yuan in 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 23.04% (Figure 1), mainly affected by the macroeconomic downturn and the downturn in real estate investment. On a quarterly basis, the company achieved revenue of 406 million yuan, 740 million yuan, 627 million yuan and 660 million yuan respectively in Q1 and Q2 in 2015, down 10.46%, 33.60%, 6.72% and 28.34% from the previous year. By project type, the residential category, tourism and vacation category and the municipal sector achieved revenue of 2,062 million yuan, 142 million yuan and 86 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases and decreases of -4.37%, -62.63% and -86.14%. Real estate, municipal garden business revenue declined slightly, and the company controlled tourism and vacation projects during the period. As a result, the earnings of the two have declined quite clearly. Furthermore, during the period, the company completed the acquisition of Deep Blue Environmental Protection. Deep Blue Environmental Protection achieved a net profit of 32.54 million yuan in 2015, fulfilling the previous performance commitment of 32 million yuan; during the period, the company contributed 27.76 million yuan in net profit. Excluding the factors of Deep Blue Environmental Protection's merger, the company's net profit fell 57% from the same period last year. The company's net operating cash flow per share in 2015 was -0.24 yuan, a marked deterioration from the same period last year. The sharp increase in the payout ratio was the main reason (Figure 4). 1) On a quarterly basis, the company's Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 achieved net operating cash flow per share of -0.33 yuan, 0.06 yuan, -0.19 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively. 2) From the perspective of revenue and cash to cash ratio, the company's 2015 revenue and disbursement ratios were 88.19% and 105.22% respectively, up 22.55% and 22.94% from the same period last year. The company experienced a marked decline in revenue during the period, and the revenue ratio increased. The deterioration in net operating cash flow was mainly due to the withdrawal of 150 million yuan of bid deposits for BT projects in the same period last year and the significant increase in payment ratio brought about by the acquisition of Deep Blue Environmental Protection and the impact of mergers; profit forecasts and ratings. We expect the company's EPS in 2016-2018 to be 0.17 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.24 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 42 times, 35 times, and 31 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: The impact of real estate regulation on real estate and garden business, project repayment falls short of expectations

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