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【海通证券】黑牡丹公司年报点评:业绩稳健增长,大力发展股权投资业务

海通證券 ·  Apr 19, 2016 00:00  · Researches

incident. The company published its 2015 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 4.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 271 million yuan, an increase of 12.6% over the previous year; and realized basic earnings per share of 0.34 yuan (fully diluted earnings per share of 0.26 yuan). The company's annual dividend plan is to distribute a cash dividend of 0.82 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. In 2015, the company's revenue fell 18% and net profit increased by 12.6% during the same period due to the decline in carry-over real estate and trade volume. The company's 2015 annual report revealed: In 2015, the total construction area of projects such as affordable housing, commercial housing, and proxy public infrastructure reached 1,211,000 square meters. In 2015, the company's textile sector completed the production of 48.9695 million meters of denim fabric and sales of 47.673 million meters, a record high in recent years. In 2015, Changshu Auto Parts Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the company, completed preparations for listing and shareholder materials. The Bank of Jiangsu's initial stock offering has been approved by the Issuance Review Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The company introduced two individual shareholders through targeted issuance, and raised 1.6 billion yuan to supplement the company's working capital, of which 600 million yuan was used to repay loans. On August 7, 2015, after implementing the 2014 profit distribution plan, the company adjusted the issue price of non-public shares from no less than 6.44 yuan/share to no less than 6.36 yuan/share; the number issued was adjusted from no more than 248 million shares to no more than 252 million shares. On October 12, 2015, the company announced that the company's non-public offering of shares was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Investment advice. Introduce a fixed increase in individual shareholders, raise capital to enhance development momentum, and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. The company integrates textiles and clothing, comprehensive urban development, and industrial investment. On behalf of the government, the company is deeply involved in the development of all businesses in New Taipei; the 17.5 square kilometer high-speed rail area and 10,000 hectares of good land projects, which are in the first phase of construction, are progressing smoothly, and the second phase of land development is starting. According to the contract company, it will receive 10% project revenue and a 5:5 share of revenue. Changzhou's housing price-income ratio is low, and the 439-square-kilometer Xinbei District has developed only 1/5, so there is room for expansion in the future. The company promotes the rejuvenation of textiles and clothing through a brand strategy (self-created ERQ jeans brand), and the Bank of Jiangsu, Changshu Auto Parts, etc. it invests in is expected to go public. Therefore, we expect the company's 2016 and 2017 EPS to be 0.38 and 0.47 yuan respectively, and the corresponding RNAV is 13.7 yuan. As of April 18, the company closed at 8.88 yuan, corresponding to 2016 and 2017 PE of 23.1 times and 18.9 times, respectively. Considering that the company's capital raising enhances development momentum, we use the company's RNAV, or 13.7 yuan, as the company's target price for the next 6 months to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The industry faces two major risks: interest rate hikes and policy regulation.

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