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【东海证券】长航凤凰(000520):雏凤振翅 欲舞九天

東海證券 ·  Aug 28, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  The company focuses on dry bulk transportation, concentrating the entire dry bulk cargo capacity of Changhang Group. It began a large-scale shipbuilding investment plan in 2007, and its performance will grow rapidly after full capacity is put into operation. The dry bulk transportation industry is currently the most prosperous industry in the shipping segment. It is expected that market freight rates will continue to operate at a high level for at least the next 2 years. The peak of capacity delivery at the end of 2009 may slow down the increase in freight rates, but the medium- to long-term upward trend is still difficult to change. Changjiang Jiaoke, a subsidiary holding 89% of the company's shares, holds 23 million shares of the listed company Celebrity Real Estate at a cost of 2.3 yuan/share. It can be listed and circulated in October 2007. If the company fully reduces its holdings, it is expected to earn 216 million yuan, or 0.32 yuan/share. Central enterprise restructuring opportunities in the shipping industry: The parent company Changhang Group and another central enterprise, Sinotrans Group, may merge within 2007. After the merger, Sinotrans's current 1.1 million tons of dry bulk transportation assets may be injected into Changhang Phoenix. If injected in early 2008 in the form of targeted additions to the parent company, the earnings per share for the full year of 2008 could reach 0.89 yuan/share; if injected in mid-2008, the annual earnings per share could reach 0.56 yuan/share. Currently, the price-earnings ratio of a comparable company is 35 times. Considering the possibility of asset injection and the company's business structure and development prospects, the stock is given a 10% valuation premium, equivalent to a dynamic price-earnings ratio (2009) of 38.5 times. The target price is 15.4 yuan. The investment rating is buy. Risk warning: Although we believe that the above restructuring of central enterprises and asset injection is possible, there is still uncertainty, and investors should pay attention to related risks.

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