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【中信建投】长航凤凰(000520):江海联运打造核心竞争力

中信建投證券 ·  Jul 2, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  “Direct river-sea access” creates core competitiveness. The ships ordered this time are all river-sea intermodal carriers of less than 100,000 tons. After the new ship is launched, it can reduce one operation in line with the company's Yangtze River capacity advantage. Take the iron ore sent to WISCO as an example. Each ton of ore saves 30 yuan compared to before. Therefore, the company is developing river-sea intermodal ships, and the competitive advantage in the market is obvious. Yangtze River Transportation's low profit margin and slow market development space have prevented other shipping companies from intervening on a large scale. Although the profitability of the company's Yangtze River transportation is weak, it provides good support for the company's river-sea intermodal transportation. If other enterprises develop river-sea intermodal transport, then there is no such supporting advantage. Subsidiaries participating in the expansion of celebrity real estate will receive considerable revenue. The subsidiary Changjiang Jiaoke subscribed for 11.5 million shares at a price of 4.6 yuan. If the company can cash out at around 10 yuan after October this year, it is expected to bring about 134 million yuan in net investment income to the company. It brought about a one-time income of approximately $0.20 per share in 2007. The huge investment income provided strong financial support for the expansion of the company's capacity. It is expected that the integration of central enterprises will bring benefits to the company. Currently, the integration of central shipping enterprises is in a state of “free love”. There are reports that the merger of Sinotrans Group and Changhang Group has made initial progress. If the merger of the two groups can be realized, it provides strong favorable expectations for the integration of Changhang Phoenix. As one of the five major shipping central enterprises with weak overall scale and strength, the integration of Changhang Group with other companies is inevitable. In addition to the shipping business, many shipping groups also have many high-quality assets such as terminals, logistics, shipbuilding, and fuel trade. Their listed companies are expected to have favorable expectations as a platform for integrating special businesses. Assets are being transferred efficiently, and profits are expected to gradually improve. When the company first went public, capacity assets were mainly in the Yangtze River, and profitability was weak. With the massive expansion of the company's maritime capacity, this situation is rapidly changing. The company's capacity structure has been adjusted and the capacity scale has grown steadily. Against the backdrop of a high boom in global dry bulk shipping, the company will continue to experience rapid growth in performance. Profit forecasts and investment proposals Driven by the adjustment of the company's capacity structure and the gradual increase in gross margin of revenue, the company will continue to experience rapid growth in performance, and 2010 and 2011 will usher in an explosion of performance. Earnings per share for 2007-2009 were $0.42, 0.32, and $0.44, respectively. The company is at a high level among similar companies, and the valuation is not attractive. Considering that the company is currently in a transition period, future performance will continue to grow rapidly, and performance will explode after 2010. At the same time, industry consolidation may bring substantial benefits to the company, we are still rating it as an increase in holdings. Within half a year, the PE price will be 25 times that of 2009, or the target price of 11 yuan.

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