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【海通证券】恒顺众昇:国家背书,乘一路之风,破印尼之海

海通證券 ·  Apr 2, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Relying on the Indonesian nickel-iron industrial park project to successfully transform into a comprehensive service provider, develop exports of complete machinery and equipment, use the resource advantages of Indonesia's coal and nickel mines, build its own power plants, and build a complete nickel-iron industry chain covering everything from energy and resources to smelting. Performance is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. Indonesia took the opportunity to successfully transform. In recent years, due to the State Grid bidding and procurement reform, competition in the power equipment market has intensified, and the company has been actively exploring opportunities for overseas development. In 2012, the company took the opportunity to win the bid for the Indonesian power plant project, using the Indonesian Industrial Park project as a starting point, in line with the country's “Belt and Road” development strategy, to drive the export of complete mechanical smelting equipment and open up overseas markets for power equipment, relying on the Indonesian investment project to develop from a single supplier of electrical equipment to a comprehensive service provider. Use its main business advantages and combine Indonesia's superior resources to build a complete nickel-iron industrial chain. At the beginning of 2014, Indonesia banned the export of raw ore. Although Indonesia is rich in mineral resources, due to lack of electricity, resources cannot be converted into products, making it difficult for pure smelters to directly enter Sulawesi (Indonesia's largest producer of laterite nickel) to build plants. The company, on the other hand, can give full play to its main business advantages and set up its own power plant to supply electricity to the company's nickel-iron smelter. The surplus electricity can also be sold out to other enterprises entering the industrial park. At the same time, the coal mines acquired by the company can also effectively reduce the company's power generation costs. This integrated model reduces the investment risk of building a separate smelter, is low in cost, and has high efficiency. In line with the national strategy, the Chinese and Indian governments support it in both directions. During the “China-Indonesia Economic Cooperation Forum” on March 27, 2015, the company signed a Chinese and Indian government support agreement with the Qingdao Municipal Government, the Indonesian Central Sulawesi Provincial Government, and relevant Indonesian investors to invest in Indonesia. This means that the company's various investment projects in Indonesia are not only in line with the country's “Belt and Road” strategy, but have also received support from the Indian government. The effects of the company's overseas layout are beginning to show, and Indonesia's performance has been realized. The company achieved revenue of 670 million yuan in 2014, an increase of 296.56% over the previous year, of which overseas revenue has reached 454 million yuan, accounting for 67.79% of revenue. Nickel prices are expected to pick up mid-year. On the supply side, new nickel production will remain low in 2015. Most Chinese nickel and iron manufacturers are at a loss under current nickel prices, and production is likely to be further reduced; at the same time, the risk that future nickel and iron manufacturers will continue to be shut down due to environmental issues is increasing (all blast furnaces in Linyi, an important producer of low nickel iron, were shut down in March). On the demand side, although China's economic growth rate is slowing and consumption in the stainless steel sector is sluggish; however, demand for high-end special steel is still strong in aerospace, military industry, etc. We believe that the current price of nickel is basically at the bottom, and there is not much room for further decline. However, as the supply of nickel is further tightened in 2015, the fundamentals of supply and demand will gradually improve, and nickel prices are expected to gradually rise in the middle of the year, and the company will benefit from this. Maintain a “buy” investment rating. The company will rely on the Indonesian nickel-iron industrial park project to integrate local coal mines, nickel mines and other resources to build a complete nickel industry chain; at the same time, develop overseas direct sales markets for machinery and equipment, and the company's performance will continue to grow rapidly. Based on the company's performance and project progress, we expect EPS for 2015-2017 to be 0.96 yuan, 1.98 yuan, and 2.56 yuan respectively. Considering the high flexibility of the company's future performance, the country's endorsement of “Belt and Road” star enterprises raised their valuation levels, giving them a target price of 47.85 yuan, corresponding to 50 times PE in 2015, and maintaining the company's “buy” investment rating. Risk warning. geopolitical risk and policy risk; exchange rate risk; project construction and production risk.

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