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【海通证券】恒顺众昇:再签2.3 亿销售合同 业绩有望超预期

海通證券 ·  Apr 7, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company recently received a message with PT. Pacific Metalurgi Indo Smelter signed the “Blast Furnace Project Phase I Special Smelting Equipment and Waste Heat Power Plant Equipment Package Contract” (the sales contract was signed on April 3, 2015), with a contract amount of US$37.28 million. The proposed delivery period is from June 30, 2015 to the end of December 2015, with batch delivery. Comment: After signing another large order of 230 million yuan, the performance is expected to exceed expectations. The above sales contract amount is 37.28 million US dollars, equivalent to about 231 million yuan (the total price of the sales contract is based on the exchange rate of RMB 6. 2:1 against the US dollar), accounting for 34.48% of the company's audited main business revenue in the previous fiscal year. According to the progress of the project, it is expected to have a significant impact on the company's operating performance in 2015. Meanwhile, the company's performance forecast for the first quarter of 2015 shows that at present, the company still has a number of major orders in hand in the complete mechanical smelting equipment business, amounting to 900 million yuan: (1) The company signed a “Special Smelting Equipment Complete Contract” with PT. Artabumi Sentra Industrial in September 2014, with a contract amount of 173 million yuan. The project contract completed the final delivery acceptance of the first batch in December 2014, and the remaining batches are expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2015. (2) The company signed the “RKEF Special Smeltindo Selaras” in October 2014 with PT. Metal Smeltindo Selaras, with a contract amount of US$79.85 million. The project contract completed the final delivery acceptance of the first batch in December 2014, and the remaining batches are expected to complete final delivery acceptance in 2015. (3) In November 2014, the company signed a “Complete Procurement Contract for Special Smelting Equipment and Waste Heat Power Plant Equipment for Phase II of the Blast Furnace Project” with PT. Artabumi Sentra Industrial, with a contract amount of 65.8 million US dollars. The project contract completed the final delivery acceptance of the first batch in December 2014, and the remaining batches are expected to complete final delivery acceptance in 2015. The above sales contract plus the on-hand orders in the first quarter will have a significant positive impact on the company's 2015 performance, and the company's performance is expected to exceed expectations. The complete set of machinery and equipment has become a new growth point for the company's revenue. The complete mechanical equipment business is an additional business invested by the company in Indonesia in 2014. Currently, the complete mechanical equipment operated by the company is mainly a complete set of special smelting equipment and a complete set of waste heat and pressure power plant equipment. The complete mechanical equipment business has contributed huge revenue and profits to the company in 2014: in 2014, the complete mechanical equipment business achieved operating income of 283 million yuan, accounting for 42.17% of total revenue; in terms of gross profit, the gross profit margin of the complete mechanical equipment business was 47.09%, achieving gross profit of 283 million yuan, accounting for 64.77% of gross profit, which had an obvious effect on improving overall performance, and the export business of complete machinery equipment has become an important source of profit for the company. The Indonesian project was supported by the Chinese and Indian governments. The “China-Indonesia Economic Cooperation Forum” was held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 27, 2015. Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Chinese Premier **** attended the forum and delivered important speeches. During the forum, the Qingdao Municipal People's Government, the company, the Indonesian Central Sulawesi Provincial Government, and the Indonesian PT. Batue Tjepper Resouces, the four parties signed the “Qingdao Municipal Government and Indonesia's Central Sulawesi Provincial Government signed a PT on Hengshun Zhongsheng Group and Indonesia. “Support Agreement for BaTuetJepper Resouces to Develop Investment Projects in Indonesia”. According to the support agreement between the Chinese and Indian governments, the signatories of the agreement will achieve cooperation between the two sides through mutual support (financing, aid, technology transfer, etc.); at the same time, the local governments of the two countries will actively guide and provide various facilities. In order for the company's investment and construction in related fields such as integrated industrial park projects, power plants, and smelter projects currently under construction in Indonesia to proceed smoothly, Indonesia's Central Sulawesi Province will endeavor to speed up all legal procedures and license processing. The signing of this agreement is a full affirmation that the company is in line with the country's “Belt and Road” strategy. It also provides government support for the company's integrated industrial park construction and other projects in Indonesia, providing policy guarantees for project development and construction. It is expected that the company's project progress will be completed beyond expectations. Maintain a “buy” investment rating. Relying on the Indonesian nickel-iron industrial park project to successfully transform into a comprehensive service provider, develop exports of complete mechanical equipment, use the resource advantages of Indonesia's coal and nickel mines, build its own power plants and smelters, and build a complete nickel-iron industry chain covering everything from energy and resources to smelting. Performance is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. According to the company's performance and project progress, we expect the company's 2015-2016 EPS to be 0.96 yuan and 1.98 yuan respectively. Combined with the average valuation level of the nickel sector, we gave the company a target price of 47.85 yuan, corresponding to 50 times PE in 2015, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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