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【天相投资】鸿特精密:订单饱满,业绩增长可期

天相投資 ·  Mar 24, 2011 00:00  · Researches

In 2010, the company achieved operating income of 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.39%; operating profit of 46.17 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.65%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 42.55 million yuan, an increase of 23.31%; and EPS of 0.48 yuan, which is basically in line with expectations. There was no profit distribution or increase in 2010. Benefiting from increased automobile sales. In 2010, China's automobile sales volume was 1,80619 million units, up 32.37% year on year. In 2010, the company developed 103 new products, and benefiting from the increase in automobile sales, the company's revenue increased by 30.39% year on year. Among them, the revenue of auto parts castings was 36,200 yuan, an increase of 30.37% over the previous year, accounting for 93% of revenue. Communications casting revenue was 9.61 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.45%, accounting for 7% of revenue. Both gross margin and period expense ratio declined year over year. The company's gross margin in 2010 was 26.25%, down 2 percentage points from the previous year, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw aluminum ingots. The fee rate for the period was 14.22%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the management expense ratio increased 0.2 percentage points to 4.11% year on year, the sales expense ratio decreased 3.29 percentage points year on year to 7.44%, and the financial expense ratio increased 0.4 percentage points year on year to 2.7%. Equal emphasis is placed on domestic and international markets. In 2010, the company's domestic and foreign sales revenue was 269 million yuan and 102 million yuan respectively, up 29.56% and 26.65% year-on-year respectively, accounting for 70% and 26% of revenue, respectively. The company will continue to expand its share in the domestic market in the future. At present, the company has made full contact with state-owned brand manufacturers such as Jiangling Motors, Hunan Changfeng, Guangzhou Automobile, and BMW Brilliance, etc., and some products have been sampled, tested, or mass-produced. At the same time, the company will actively explore the international market and strive to become an international enterprise that places equal emphasis on domestic and foreign markets. Since the company's top two customers, Dongfeng Honda Automobile and Dongfeng Honda engine, account for about 60% of revenue, the Japanese earthquake caused a period of decline in the supply of Japanese auto parts, which contributed to a certain extent to the company's auto parts sales volume, it is expected that the company's market share of Honda auto parts supply will increase. The fund-raising project was fully completed in 2012. The company's automobile precision die-casting parts expansion project is expected to be completed by the end of 2011, and production will be fully completed in 2012, adding 45.17 million yuan in annual profit after tax, equivalent to 0.5 yuan in EPS. Earnings forecasts and ratings. The 2011-2013 EPS is expected to be 0.62 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 1.15 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 20.45 yuan on March 23, the corresponding dynamic PE is 33 times, 23 times, and 18 times, respectively. Considering that the company's full orders over the next two years and capital raising projects will gradually contribute profits, the company will be given an investment rating of “increasing holdings”. Risk warning. (1) The risk that the price of raw materials such as aluminum ingots will rise more than expected; (2) the risk that capital raising projects will fall short of expectations.

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