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【华融证券】中青宝:业绩或已见底,期待新游投入正式运营

華融證券 ·  Oct 25, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company's net profit for the first three quarters increased by only 4.63% year on year, but as expected, it achieved revenue of 52.2641 million yuan in January-September, down 2.06% year on year; net profit attributable to the company's common shareholders was 29.1599 million yuan, up 4.63% year on year; corresponding to basic earnings per share of 0.23 yuan. The company's performance in the second and third quarters continues to be within expectations, and may have now reached a rock bottom. Since the company's official operation of the game Sengoku Heroes and Heavenly Dao has entered a period of decline during the reporting period, the APA downward trend is obvious, while the new game Dream of Mountain and Sea is still in the testing period and officially put into operation at the latest; it is expected that after the testing of the new game is completed and officially put into operation, the company's performance will explode. The launch of new games boosted operating costs, while the period fee ratio improved. The gross margin of the company's comprehensive business fell 5.7 percentage points to 84.36% during the reporting period. The main reason was the launch of new games, which contributed to a 54.10% year-on-year increase in operating costs; the period fee ratio improved, falling 6.79 percentage points year-on-year to 42.10%. The main reason was a sharp decrease in financial expenses over the year, and bank deposit interest income generated from the company's IPO. The development and testing of new game products is progressing smoothly. The number of games will become the future performance guarantee company's new MMORPG product “Tianchao” successfully entered the closed beta on September 22. Currently, the product test performance is stable, and it is expected that it will be put into public beta in the 4th quarter. The web game product “Gulu Island” has also begun closed beta on September 27. With the increase in the number of online web games, the company's management expects the web game business to continue to increase its profit contribution to the company in the future. The company's other new products, such as “New Song Romance,” “Three Kingdoms,” and “Journey to the East,” are currently being developed smoothly, and are expected to be tested one after another from the second half of 2010 to the first half of 2011. It is expected that the number of major games that the company will officially operate in the next year will reach about 8. The current situation where the number of active products is too low will be completely reversed, and operating income is also expected to increase dramatically. The profit forecast was adjusted but the “recommended” rating was maintained. We downgraded for 10 years but raised the revenue forecasts for the 11th and 12th years to about 86.54 million yuan, 143 million yuan, and 223 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding earnings per share were 0.398 yuan, 0.669 yuan, and 0.994 yuan, and still maintained the “recommended” rating. Risk warning 1. New game products have not been put into operation as scheduled, dragging down performance; 2. The company's game operation and service capabilities have failed to keep up with the increase in the number of products.

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