Main points of investment:
Rookie in the drone market. In February this year, the SF10-A01 fixed-wing UAV, which was independently developed by Hefei Sai, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, successfully flew. For the first time, the company appeared in the public eye as a provider of flight control systems for drones. Saiwei intelligent UAV technology comes from Sheng Xinpu, former chief engineer of northern navigation, and Yang Xuewu, an expert in drone and airship avionics. Listed companies cooperate with technology parties to develop various types of UAV equipment (50% each).
Differentiated market positioning of the company's drones. At present, the participants in the UAV field are mainly engaged in the whole machine manufacturing, flight control system and power equipment manufacturing, of which the core is the flight control system, and more machine manufacturers are involved in the development of the flight control system. The company is mainly engaged in machine manufacturing and flight control system research and development. At present, the company's main product is a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The first successful flight model can carry a load of 10kg, a maximum of 200kg, a range of 5 hours, and a maximum flight altitude of 3000 meters (civil aviation limit of 1000 meters). The core control and picture transmission technology are independently developed by the company. The company's fixed-wing aircraft quickly seize the military and industrial application fields with the characteristics of heavy load, long flight time, high speed and so on. The multi-rotor UAV being developed by the company does not use batteries to fly, but continues to supply power through the chassis. At present, the aircraft is expected to lift off 300 meters with a load of 5 kilograms, which is mainly used in emergency disaster relief, fixed communications and so on. In terms of price, the unit price of the company's products is between 60 and 1 million, which is quite different from the current price of small and micro drones.
The market space of UAV is large, the technical requirements of military products are high, and the competition is relatively relaxed. At present, the domestic UAV market is about 3 billion yuan, of which military UAV accounts for about 90%. At present, the global market share of civilian drones is 11%, and the military occupies a large space. At present, China's military expenditure is growing at a rate of 10%, while the commercial drone market is showing explosive growth. Undeniably, at present, military and government public services are the broadest application market for drones in China. Saiwei intelligent products are also established and developed in accordance with the corresponding technical standards. at present, the company has obtained the second-class secret qualification and military qualification of military industry, and the sales of related products are also being pushed forward in an orderly manner.
Financial forecast and rating: we expect the EPS of the company from 2015 to 2017 to be 0.37,0.68,0.97 yuan respectively, and the corresponding price-to-earnings ratio is 83 times, 46 times and 32 times respectively. With reference to the average 180 times valuation of listed drones in the industry, we predict that the company's target price is 66.60 yuan, giving a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint: the marketing order may not be as expected.