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【广发证券】双成药业:储备丰富的多肽药物骨干企业

廣發證券 ·  Jul 24, 2012 00:00  · Researches

A key peptide drug company. The company with rich product reserves is a company that develops, produces and sells polypeptide drugs. It has 7 new drug certificates and 37 registration approvals. The main polypeptide products include thymic method, thymic pentapeptide, and somatostatin. The products being developed and declared include peptides such as efevat, exenatide, bivaluludine, and teriparatide, with a rich product reserve. R&D model combining independent and commissioned research and development. In terms of R&D, the company uses a model combining independent R&D and commissioned development, and entrusts partners, research institutes, and CRO companies to complete the synthesis of raw materials, process optimization, pharmacological and toxicological experiments, and CRO companies, which helps to shorten R&D time and improve efficiency. In terms of sales, it mainly uses the “investment agent” model, and the sales cost is low. For the new thymus method, the company uses an academic promotion model under the investment promotion agency, that is, in the investment agency model, agents are academically trained to guide their market development work. Future highlights: The current sales revenue of companies exporting polypeptide products and listing new products mainly comes from Thymus Law. This product was launched in 2006, accounting for about 64% of total revenue in 2011 and 85% of total gross profit. It is a Class B type of national health insurance, and it is also a high-end immunomodulator product, and is still expected to grow steadily in recent years. The export products are mainly crude products of efavibatide as an ingredient. In the future, it is planned to complete the US DMF and EU EDMF declarations and preparations for products such as esenatide and exenatide within three years. New products that have been declared for production or clinical trials, such as efipatide, teriparatide, and exenatide, are all in the fields of major diseases such as cardiovascular, metabolic, and diabetes, and exports of peptide raw materials and new products are expected to become new growth points for the company. Recommended inquiry range: 15.4-21.0 yuan. We predict that the company's EPS for 2012-2014 will be 0.70/0.91/1.04 yuan, respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 21%. Considering the company's growth, the valuation level and prudential principles of companies in the same industry in the sector, we price the company at 22-30 times 2012, and the recommended inquiry range is 15.4-21.0 yuan. Risk warning: the launch of a new product falls short of expectations; the risk of price reduction of related products; the risk of increasing sales expenses

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