share_log

【国都证券】双成药业新股研究:多肽药物领域生力军,畅享行业高景气

國都證券 ·  Jul 26, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Inquiry conclusion: We expect the company's earnings per share from 2012 to 2014 to be 0.69 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.08 yuan respectively. Referring to the average price-earnings ratio of listed companies in peptide preparations and the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, the company was given a reasonable dynamic price-earnings ratio of 23-28 times in 2012. The corresponding inquiry range was 15.9 yuan to 19.3 yuan. Main basis: 1. The company is one of the leaders in the peptide industry. The company's main products include injectable thymus therapy, injectable somatostatin, and injectable thymus pentapeptide. The immunomodulatory peptide product “Kitai” (new thymus method for injections) is the company's leading product and the main source of the company's profit. Over the past 3 years, profits have accounted for more than 80%, and in 2011, revenue and profit accounted for 71.73% and 85.20%, respectively. 2. Enjoy the high prosperity of the industry, and the company continues to grow steadily. In recent years, the sales scale of chemically synthesized peptide drugs in China has been expanding year by year. From 2007 to 2010, it has grown at a rate of more than 20% every year. Terminal sales have risen from 3.692 billion yuan in 2007 to 7.611 billion yuan in 2010 (according to actual retail price statistics), and the compound annual growth rate from 2007 to 2010 reached 27.27%. According to SFDA forecasts, the peptide drug market will maintain a growth rate of more than 10% in the next few years. Over the past three years, the company's performance has continued to grow steadily. The compound annual growth rates of revenue and profit from 2009 to 2011 were 23% and 48.09%, respectively, and the comprehensive gross margin stabilized above 65%. 3. The sales model is conducive to the rapid increase in volume of the new thymus gland method. The company uses “professional academic promotion under an investment agency”, that is, on the basis of the investment agency model, agents are raised their professional level through academic training, and they are guided to complete regional market development work. Currently, the sales volume of the company's leading product, the injectable thymus method, is in the leading position in China. The price is 1/5 of similar products abroad. The company's model of combining academic promotion and agency is conducive to the rapid increase in product volume and channel coverage. The new thymus method has now covered more than 1,000 hospitals across the country, including about 350 of the top three hospitals. 4. Issuance situation: The company's IPO plans to issue 30 million shares. Wang Chengdong and Wang Yingpu and their son hold a total of 50.48% of the company's shares after issuance through Hainan Shuangcheng Investment and HSP, and are the actual controllers of the company. The company plans to invest about 300 million dollars in projects such as expanding production of peptide raw materials and formulations and building R&D centers. After the project is delivered, the bottleneck in the company's production capacity will be effectively alleviated. 5. Risk warning: Currently, the product is relatively single, and competition in the dominant product market is intensifying

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment