share_log

【海通证券】百川股份新股报告:醋酸丁酯行业龙头企业

[Haitong] Baichuan New shares report: a leading enterprise in butyl acetate industry

海通證券 ·  Jul 21, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Baichuan Co., Ltd. specializes in the field of butyl acetate, committed to environmental protection, low toxicity, safe paint solvents, plasticizer raw materials butyl acetate and trimellitic anhydride and other products production and sales. It has made some achievements in the continuous production of butyl acetate and industrial production of trimellitic anhydride, and it is a leading enterprise in the domestic butyl acetate industry.

Baichuan has been committed to the research and development, production and sales of butyl acetate and trimellitic anhydride. Since 2006, the production capacity of butyl acetate has been maintained at 100000 tons, and the output in 2009 was 134000 tons, ranking first in the country. The company's business structure. In 2009, 87.9% of the company's main business income came from butyl acetate and trimellitic anhydride, of which butyl acetate accounted for 80.1%, trimellitic anhydride accounted for 7.8%, and the gross profit of the two products accounted for 99.7%. Of which butyl acetate accounted for 89.2%.

The status of butyl acetate industry. The production capacity of the world butyl acetate industry was about 1.1 million tons / year in 2002. by 2006, the global production capacity reached more than 1.5 million tons / year. The global production capacity of butyl acetate can basically meet the market demand, and there are no plans to increase production. In recent years, the increase in production capacity mainly comes from China. The production capacity of butyl acetate in China increased from 96000 tons in 2000 to 550000 tons in 2006, with an annual compound growth rate of 33.77 percent. In recent years, the production capacity of butyl acetate in China has greatly exceeded the consumption capacity, but most of the intermittent esterification methods have high costs and are difficult to compete with imported products. It is expected that the overall production capacity of butyl acetate in China will decline with the phasing out of less than 10,000 tons of butyl acetate equipment in the future.

advantage in competition. The company's competitive advantage is mainly reflected in: technological advantage, product scale advantage, low-cost investment advantage and stable customer relationship advantage, as well as the complete industrial chain advantage.

Raise funds to invest in the project. The investment raised by the company's IPO will be invested in the "annual production of 20, 000 tons of trimellitic anhydride and 20, 000 tons of trimellitic acid trioctyl ester" project, with a total investment of 285 million yuan, including fixed assets investment of 230 million yuan.

Profit forecast and investment advice. According to our forecast, the EPS of Baichuan shares from 2010 to 2012 is 0.65,0.74,1.14 respectively, and the growth rate of operating income is 11.90%, 21.80% and 43.06% respectively. At present, for the steady development of the company, we believe that it is reasonable to give the company a PE value of 23-28 times in 2010. The corresponding valuation range is 14.95-18.20, and the issue price is 20.00 yuan. We suggest that you apply carefully. The main uncertain factors. The fluctuation of international oil price and coal price brings about the fluctuation of the price of raw material n-butanol and glacial acetic acid, the risk of product substitution, and the competition risk brought by the further expansion of international and domestic enterprises.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment