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【宏源证券】龙星化工:高成本低毛利格局仍要维持

宏源證券 ·  Oct 20, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Production capacity will expand over the next 2 years. The company's current production capacity is 180,000 tons, the hard one is 120,000 tons, the pure soft one is 40,000 tons, and 20,000 tons are interchangeable. The production capacity is expected to reach 300,000 tons by the end of 2011. The procurement of raw materials has certain advantages, and the transportation radius is 60 km. The company's anthracene oil is purchased from neighboring Jiantao Hebei Coking Co., Ltd. (wholly owned in Hong Kong). It is 60 km from the company. The average procurement distance for coal tar from Xinxing Casting Pipe (all-inclusive), Handan Steel Works, Xing Steel, Xuyang Coking, and Angang Steel is 60 km. The storage area can store 45,000 tons of coal tar, covering an area of 60 acres, and can be used for 45 days. Exhaust gas power generation increased slightly in performance. Currently, the exhaust gas power generation is 21MW, and maintenance is carried out 15 days a year, and about 45% is used for personal use. Currently, the feed-in electricity price is 0.40 yuan, and the gross margin is around 50%. High costs suppress product gross profit margins. Currently, the price of coal tar is 3,320 yuan/ton, the price of anthracene oil is 3,500 yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene tar is 3,300 - 3,500 yuan/ton. Due to rising costs, the current gross margin of carbon black is around 20%, which is clearly declining. Company performance and valuation. The company's performance in 2010-2012 is expected to be 0.35, 0.57, and 0.94 yuan/share, respectively, corresponding to the 2010-2012 PE of 41X, 25X, and 15X. Investment advice. Although the company's production capacity has been greatly expanded, costs are currently high, and production cuts in steel mills will push raw materials such as coal tar to rise. Although long-term valuations still have advantages, the company is in the upper reaches of the tire industry, and the tire industry is mainly affected by the logistics industry. In terms of the industry chain, the company is in a situation where costs are high and demand is slowing, so it is temporarily given a neutral investment rating.

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