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【天相投资】鲁丰股份:上半年实现EPS0.23元,符合预期

天相投資 ·  Aug 18, 2010 00:00  · Researches

From January to June 2010, the company achieved operating income of 509 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.19%; operating profit of 23.85 million yuan, an increase of 69.96%; realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 17.74 million yuan, an increase of 80.29% over the previous year; and achieved a basic EPS of 0.23 yuan. On a quarterly basis, in the first and second quarters of 2010, the company achieved net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 9.52 million yuan and 8.22 million yuan, respectively (basic earnings per share were 0.12 yuan and 0.11 yuan, respectively). The commissioning of the aluminum strip project led to a year-on-year increase in revenue. The company is mainly engaged in aluminum foil processing and aluminum sheet production, and is a leading manufacturer of medicinal aluminum foil and household aluminum foil in China. Due to the commissioning of the company's 50,000 ton aluminum strip fund-raising project during the reporting period, the revenue of the aluminum strip business increased by 2878.86% year on year to 105 million yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 22.19% of revenue, an increase of 14.96 percentage points over the previous year. Furthermore, since the gross margin of the aluminum strip business was 3.6%, the sharp increase in the revenue share of this business lowered the company's overall gross profit margin. The company's comprehensive gross margin in the first half of the year was 12.82%, down 2.95 percentage points from the previous year. The fund-raising project will gradually reach production. The capital raised by the company is mainly used to invest in two projects: (1) a high-precision aluminum strip production line project with an annual output of 50,000 tons; and (2) an aluminum foil production line project with an annual output of 30,000 tons. In addition, the company also has two projects under construction: the “50,000 ton high-precision aluminum strip production expansion project” and the “50,000 ton high-precision aluminum foil production line project”. The above projects will gradually reach production in 2011-2012, and after delivery, the company's aluminum foil and aluminum sheet production capacity will increase to 120,000 tons and 100,000 tons respectively. In addition, the export of some of the company's aluminum sheet and strip products will add new profit points to the company. The company's future highlight is consumption upgrades. Aluminum foil consumption is mainly divided into two aspects: daily demand and industrial demand. Since aluminum foil has the characteristics of light weight, good airtightness, good coverage, environmental protection, etc., it has good application prospects in the fields of food, pharmaceutical packaging, household utensils, etc., and there is a trend of gradually replacing traditional packaging materials such as plastic bags, paper bags, and glass bottles. Currently, China's aluminum foil packaging market is at an early stage compared to developed countries. Nearly 65% of consumer goods in developed countries use aluminum foil packaging, while China's only 17.2%. With consumption upgrades, the future potential is huge. Profit forecast: We expect the company's 2010-2012 EPS to be 0.55 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.42 yuan, respectively. Based on the closing price of 39.44 yuan on August 17, the dynamic P/E for 2010-2012 will be 69 times, 38 times, and 27 times, respectively. Although the company's revenue will grow rapidly in the next two years, the company's valuation is high at this stage, maintaining the company's “neutral” investment rating.

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