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【天相投资】鲁丰股份:新建产能投产推升公司未来业绩

天相投資 ·  Apr 8, 2011 00:00  · Researches

From January to December 2010, the company achieved operating income of 1,022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.84%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 36.52 million yuan, an increase of 13.37% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share was 0.47 yuan. In the fourth quarter, the company achieved operating income of 272 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.09%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 10.92 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.92%; and basic earnings per share was 0.14 yuan. The company's annual profit distribution plan is to increase 10 shares for every 10 shares and distribute 1 yuan in cash (tax included). The sharp rise in price volume was the main reason for the increase in the company's revenue in 2010. The company is mainly engaged in aluminum foil processing and aluminum sheet production, and is a leading manufacturer of pharmaceutical aluminum foil and household aluminum foil in China. The average spot price of aluminum in the Yangtze River market during the reporting period was 15,709 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.42% over the previous year. As an aluminum deep-processing product, the sales price of the company's products increased in the same direction; at the same time, the company's 50,000-ton aluminum strip fund-raising project led to an increase in sales volume of the company's products. These two factors together led to a 30.84% increase in the company's revenue. The comprehensive gross margin showed a gradual upward trend. The company's comprehensive gross margin during the reporting period was 13.74%, down 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year. The main reason for the decline in gross margin was household foil products: household foil products accounted for nearly 50% of operating income, mainly used for exports, and the continuous appreciation of RMB during the reporting period devoured part of the company's profits. On a quarterly basis, the company's gross margin situation for the 1st to 4th quarter of 2010 was 14.98%, 11.15%, 12.79%, and 16.32%. The reason for the increase in gross margin was obvious. The reason for the increase in gross margin was that the aluminum strip project was put into operation, and the company's raw material purchases declined. The future prospects for the company's products are positive. Since aluminum foil has the characteristics of light weight, good airtightness, good coverage, environmental protection, etc., it has good application prospects in the fields of food, pharmaceutical packaging, household utensils, etc., and there is a trend of gradually replacing traditional packaging materials such as plastic bags, paper bags, and glass bottles. Currently, China's aluminum foil packaging market is at an early stage compared to developed countries. Nearly 65% of consumer goods in developed countries use aluminum foil packaging, while China's only 17.2%. With economic transformation and consumption upgrading, the future potential is huge. The commissioning of new production capacity will boost the company's future performance. The company's current production capacity is 40,000 tons of aluminum foil production capacity and 50,000 tons of aluminum strip production capacity. The production capacity under construction (put into operation in 2011) includes 80,000 tons of aluminum foil production capacity and a 50,000 ton aluminum strip expansion project. In addition, the company announced last year that it plans to build 450,000 tons of high-precision aluminum strips and 100,000 tons of high-precision aluminum foil projects. The successive commissioning of aluminum strip and aluminum foil projects will help the company expand its market share and boost the company's future performance. Profit forecast. We expect the company's 2011-2013 EPS to be 0.96 yuan, 1.60 yuan, and 2.52 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 37.60 yuan on April 7, the dynamic price-earnings ratio will be 40 times, 24 times, and 15 times, respectively. Considering future growth, the company's rating will be raised to “increase holdings.” Risk warning: 1. Risk of large fluctuations in aluminum ingot prices; 2. Risk of exchange rate changes and export policy changes; 3. Risk of project progress falling short of expectations.

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