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【兴业证券】国创高新:沥青龙头驶上成长高速路

興業證券 ·  Mar 14, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The construction of the national highway network brings historical opportunities to the modified asphalt market: according to the “11th Five-Year Plan” for road traffic, the national highway network will be in a relatively rapid construction stage by 2020. It is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of 15% on the current 70,000 kilometers. Estimated consumption of 500 tons per kilometer will bring demand of 5 million tons to the modified asphalt market. The company specializes in SBS modified asphalt series products: Guochuang Hi-Tech is a major road asphalt manufacturer in China. The company's main business is the development, production and sales of modified asphalt and emulsified asphalt products. In 2009, sales revenue was 614 million yuan, and net profit was 35 million yuan. The company has outstanding technical advantages: the company has mastered the key technology of modified asphalt products and has many patents in chemical technology and equipment technology. In 2005-2007, the company's products accounted for more than 15% of the modified asphalt market for newly built highways in China, ranking in the top three in the same industry in the country, and ranked first in the markets for newly built highways in Hubei, Shaanxi and Guangxi during the same period. The fund-raising project further enhances the company's competitiveness: the company plans to issue 27 million shares this time, and the capital raised will be invested in modified asphalt production capacity expansion, rubber powder modified asphalt, mobile engineering equipment, and R&D center construction projects. The fund-raising project will further optimize the company's product structure and comprehensively enhance the company's market competitiveness. The reasonable value range is 15.30-17.85 yuan: the company's fully diluted EPS is expected to be 0.51 yuan, 0.76 yuan, and 0.99 yuan in 10, 11, and 12 years. Considering the company's competitive advantage and the broad development prospects of the industry, the company was valued according to a price-earnings ratio of 30-35 times its 2010 performance, with a reasonable value range of 15.30-17.85 yuan. Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuations, marketing risks caused by capacity expansion

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