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【申银万国】柘中建设:全国第二大大直径管桩企业,预计首日价格22.9-24.8元

申萬宏源 ·  Jan 28, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: IPO overview. The company issued 35 million tradable A shares at a price of 19.9 yuan, of which 7 million shares were placed offline (oversubscription multiple 77 times) and 28 million shares were issued online (oversubscription multiplier 282 times), raising 697 million yuan in capital. The market leader for large diameter pipe piles in China. The company is an important manufacturer of PHC pipe piles in the domestic prestressed concrete pipe pile industry. Currently, it has 2 production lines for small diameter PHC pipe piles below φ600 (inclusive) and large diameter PHC pipe piles above φ600, and 1 spiral welded pipe production line from φ500 to φ3,700. It is one of the most important production bases in the field of large diameter PHC pipe piles above φ600 in China, with 25% market share of large diameter pipe piles ranking second in the country. Actively carry out structural adjustments to increase the proportion of large diameter pipe piles. Large-diameter PHC pipe piles have high entry barriers to technology, transportation, etc., and at the same time, their investment scale in downstream ports, terminals, etc., and in the shipbuilding industry will continue to grow rapidly. In the future, they will become the main development direction of China's concrete pipe pile industry. Due to the relatively good market situation of large diameter pipe piles, the profit level is significantly higher than that of small diameter pipe piles. The company's gross margin for large diameter pipe piles reached 29.4% in the first half of 2009, while the gross margin of small diameter pipe piles fell from 23.8% in 2008 to 9.72% in the first half of 2009. The company actively adjusted its product structure and increased the proportion of large diameter pipe piles. Its revenue share increased from 51.32% in 2006 to 95.3% in the first half of 2009, and its gross profit contribution increased from 60% in 2006 to 99.9% in the first half of 2009. The expected price on the first day is 22.9-23.8 yuan. The company's EPS for 09-11 is expected to be 0.42/0.57/0.77 yuan/share, with an average compound annual growth rate of 35%. The 10-year dynamic price-earnings ratio of companies in the building materials industry is about 15-20 times. Considering the company's good growth, we think we can give it a 10-year price-earnings ratio of 30-33 times, with a reasonable value range of 17-19 yuan. Combined with the average increase of small and medium-sized board companies on the first day of listing, we expect the company to increase by 15% to 25% on the first day of listing, and the price on the first day of listing to be 22.9-24.8 yuan.

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