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【华泰联合证券】北新路桥:享区域发展盛宴,借高端业务腾飞

華泰聯合證券 ·  May 17, 2011 00:00  · Researches

On January 18, 2011, the People's Congress of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region officially approved the 12th Five-Year Plan. By the end of 2015, the per capita GDP of Xinjiang will reach the national average. During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, Xinjiang plans to invest 3.6 trillion yuan in fixed assets, three times that of the 11th Five-Year Plan period. It is estimated that the fixed asset investment for highway construction in Xinjiang during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will reach 150-250 billion yuan, 2.5-4 times that of the 11th Five-Year Plan period. The planned construction of 4,000 kilometers of highways is four times the highway traffic mileage at the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan period; the planned construction of 15,500 kilometers of high-grade highways is more than three times that of the 11th Five-Year Plan period. The company is the only listed company in Xinjiang province that specializes in road and bridge construction. Compared with large state-owned enterprises outside the country, the company has a geographical advantage; compared with domestic enterprises, the company has complete qualifications, is one of the eight enterprises in Xinjiang province with first-class general contracting qualifications for highway engineering construction, and has advantages in terms of capital. We believe that in the context of the acceleration of highway construction in Xinjiang during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, it would be a probable event that the company used its competitive advantage to obtain orders on a large scale within the country. After the company went public, it made full use of its experience in road and bridge construction and the financial advantages provided by the capital market to actively expand into high-end businesses with high net interest rates such as BT and BOT. The total amount of BT/BOT projects currently announced has reached 6.379 billion yuan. It is expected that it will contribute profits to the company starting in 2011, and the company's gross margin and net profit margin will increase markedly. The company currently has more than 50 first-class builders, and in the future, if the company expands rapidly and there is a shortage of builders, the majority shareholders will support them through secondments and other means. Therefore, we believe that human resources will not become a bottleneck for the company's rapid development during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. We forecast that the company's operating income for 2011-2013 was 3,419 billion yuan, 4.892 billion yuan and 6.64 billion yuan respectively, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 90 million yuan, 144 million yuan and 201 million yuan respectively, with a 3-year compound growth rate of 43%, corresponding EPS of 0.47 yuan, 0.76 yuan and 1.06 yuan, respectively, and corresponding PE of 37.8X, 23.5X and 16.8X respectively, covering the ratings given for increased holdings for the first time. Risk warning: Business expansion in Xinjiang fell short of expectations, construction was stopped due to weather factors, and foreign projects were shut down or gross margin declined due to political factors

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