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【长江证券】飞马国际跟踪报告:金属平台完成,待模块深入整合发挥

長江證券 ·  Feb 3, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The event describes our tracking updates on company fundamentals. 1) The original petroleum equipment import business has maintained steady development, and there are no plans to further develop; 2) Coal business: The initial adjustment of the customer structure was completed, replacing small and medium-sized customers with Datang Electric Power and upgraded to suppliers within the system; secondly, a team was set up to enter the coking coal field and expand simultaneously. 3) Electrolytic copper and aluminum business platform completed, core development in 13 years; 4) Logistics park: three old renovation areas, with the right to transform, and the project can be changed for commercial use and redevelopment. Incident review The petroleum equipment import business has stabilized, and there are no plans for further cultivation. Considering the overall business trend, the current growth rate of fixed asset investment in the petrochemical industry has declined markedly, and equipment imports are also stabilizing. Considering the future increase in domesticated equipment, we believe that this part of the company's business is struggling to maintain the good cash flow brought about by the current business. The construction of the electrolytic copper dual platform was completed and officially put into operation. The South China and East China platforms include the metal platform. As can be seen from the company's 2012 results, the year-on-year increase in the company's Q3 performance was mainly partially completed. Since 2013 Q3 was a difficult quarter to develop the coal business, the formal completion and online operation of the electrolytic aluminum platform shared the company's risk factors in the coal business in a timely manner. The coal business platform continues to be adjusted, and a metallurgical coal team has been added. 1) First, the company's current coal business continued to be adjusted after 12 years of shock, excluding some small steel companies with poor payment capacity from supplying customers, and transferring supply mainly to Datang Electric Power's internal supply. Get faster payouts. However, as far as the current supply system is concerned, although the company added stacking positions at the port of Jiangsu, the increase in cargo volume is still limited to a certain extent, and the lack of coal distribution capacity and downstream coal sources makes it impossible for the company to continue to rapidly expand its coal business volume. Therefore, the company has yet to continue to explore customer development. 2) At present, the company has set up a metallurgical coal team, started the metallurgical coal business, and continued to complete the coal platform. The metal platform had a certain year-on-year effect in the first half of the year and maintained a “careful recommendation.” We believe that the transformation of the company's business platform is gradually being completed, and the new business platform is rapidly becoming profitable, but due to the unclear ability of the new platform to continue to grow and the need for the company to continue to adjust the coal platform, we expect the company's 12-14 EPS to be 0.24 yuan, 0.298 yuan, and 0.378 yuan, respectively, corresponding PE of 21 times, 17 times, and 14 times, respectively, to maintain a “careful recommendation.”

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