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【湘财证券】达意隆公司深度研究:从制造到创造,由设备到服务

湘財證券 ·  Dec 15, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The leading brand company for liquid product packaging machinery in China is a leading enterprise in the beverage packaging machinery manufacturing industry in China, and is the largest enterprise with the most complete product chain and scale in the domestic beverage packaging industry. The company's technology is close to foreign products. The product price is only 1/3-1/2 of foreign products, and there is huge room for import substitution. The growth in the company's performance is quite clear. The expansion of the downstream beverage and daily chemical industries has brought sufficient orders to the company; moreover, the company recently established an American branch to further explore high-growth beverage consumption markets in Latin America. Import substitution and steady expansion of overseas business are important sources for the company's future performance growth. Benefiting from increased consumption and import substitution space, China's beverage packaging equipment industry market will reach 11 billion yuan in 2011. Global beverage consumption will maintain a growth rate of 3.4% in the next 2 years, and China will be around 8.4%. Benefiting from the steady increase in beverage consumption, the beverage packaging equipment manufacturing industry will maintain double-digit growth; China's daily chemical and food packaging equipment markets have reached more than 10 billion yuan, and there is plenty of room for the company to expand horizontally. From manufacturing to creation, the core competitive advantage of equipment to service companies lies in technological innovation+generation processing model innovation. The company has strong technological innovation capabilities, has the technical strength of the entire line of beverage packaging equipment, and participates in the formulation of industry standards, moving from “manufacturing” to “creation”; with the production capacity of the entire beverage production line, the company promptly meets the needs of downstream beverage processing outsourcing and intervenes in the beverage processing market. The company has switched from traditional equipment providers (“selling equipment”) to beverage processors (“selling services”), which not only increases revenue, but also the proxy processing business model (due to the rigidity of beverage consumption) has become an important way for the company to counter the cyclical impact of equipment investment. Valuation and investment recommendations. As a domestic liquid packaging machinery leader, its excellent technical strength and contract processing business model will enhance the company's brand image, further expand the market, and obtain more import substitution space and overseas markets. We expect the company's EPS for 2011-2013 to be 0.29 yuan, 0.40, and 0.52 yuan, respectively. Considering next year's high growth, we will give it a target price of 30X P/E and 12 yuan in 2012, giving it a “buy” rating. Key concerns. Stock price catalyst (positive): Further acquisition of OEM line orders, significant progress in overseas market development. Risk warning (negative): There is a risk that exports will decline due to the global crisis, and the growth rate of investment in downstream industries will decline due to the decline in domestic economic growth.

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