Affected by the financial crisis, the company's revenue has fallen sharply since the fourth quarter of last year, reaching a trough in the first quarter of this year, and both revenue and gross profit margin have rebounded as orders have rebounded in the second quarter.
At present, the first factory is basically full production, and the operating rate of the second plant is about 75%. The second half of the year is the peak season for the industry, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise for the rest of 2009.
At present, the US economy has stopped recession, but the economy that has just begun to recover does not support the resumption of large-scale consumption in developed countries. At present, the unemployment rate in the United States is still high. It is believed that large-scale consumption of electronic products should occur at least in 2010, and we believe that the industry will rise in the second half of 2010.
The company's future performance growth, on the one hand, comes from the recovery of orders in the industry, and the other comes from the further improvement of the existing product structure, such as increasing the proportion of shipments of six or more layers of multilayer boards. But the main growth comes from the mass production of HDI boards.
At present, the company's HDI equipment installation is basically in place, is carrying out sub-process equipment adjustment and commissioning.
The qualified rate of small batch trial production has reached 90%. Although the qualified rate still needs to be improved, technically, all aspects of the company's HDI project have been through, and there are no technical difficulties that cannot be overcome. As the company's plan is to achieve mass production by the end of the year, the qualified rate can continue to be improved before it is officially put into production.
The company's profit forecast for 2009-11 is 0.01 yuan, 0.13 yuan and 0.24 yuan. At present, the stock price implies a high dynamic price-to-earnings ratio. However, as the company's absolute share price is low, and the performance is the bottom of the performance, with the recovery of the industry boom and the mass production of HDI projects, the performance will gradually return to the normal level. We give a "recommended" investment rating with a target price of 6.72 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 28 times 11 years.