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【申银万国证券】景兴纸业:—定增生活用纸:业绩增长新引擎,平抑经营周期波动,上调至增持

申萬宏源 ·  Jun 9, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The rating was raised to “increased holdings.” We expect the company's earnings per share to be $0.32, $0.42, and $0.66 after full dilution (additional capital of 160 million) in 11-13, respectively. We gave the box board paper business a valuation of 13 times in 12 years and the household paper business 20 times in 13 years. Also, considering the equity value corresponding to the 20% Sharp Ace shares held by the company, according to the segment valuation method, the total equity value of the company is 8.46 yuan. According to the absolute valuation method, the company's internal value is 8.56 yuan. The company's stock price currently has 17% room to rise, and the rating has been raised to increase its holdings. Fixed increase in household paper projects: differentiated competition boosts profits and calms cycle fluctuations. The company now plans to increase its share capital by no more than 160 million yuan, with a fixed base price increase of no less than 623 yuan, and invest in 68,000 tons of recycled household paper projects. Recycled household paper already has a high penetration rate in developed countries; however, the country is in a period of introduction and development. The potential market capacity is estimated to be about 700,000 tons by 2015, and there is a huge gap between supply and demand in the market. The company leverages its original technical advantages in deinking waste paper and technical cooperation with Japanese manufacturers to ensure product quality. The cost of recycled household paper using waste paper as a raw material is about 20% lower than that of raw wood pulp household paper. The channels are positioned in special channels, and sales expenses are greatly reduced compared to traditional dealer stores, expanding profit margins. The consumer goods properties of household paper can effectively calm the fluctuations in the company's current box board paper cycle and reduce the company's beta. Benefiting from the recovery in industry prosperity and the restructuring of the company's product structure, it is expected that the gross margin of the box board paper business will rise steadily. The concentration of the domestic box board paper industry is expected to rise further, which will help to increase overall bargaining power; the company will benefit from the continuous release of production capacity of the dominant variety of white cardboard, optimize the existing product structure, and increase the overall gross profit margin. Shareholding in Sharp Ace is expected to contribute to investment income. Sharp Ace, which has a 20% stake in the company, is engaged in drug research and development, production and management, etc., and its main products are anti-cataract and anti-glaucoma eye drops. Sharp Ace's net profit in 10 years was 43.0952 million yuan. Currently, the Securities Regulatory Commission has officially accepted its listing application, and it is expected that it will contribute a large amount of investment income after listing. Different understanding from the market: 1. The market believes that the household paper industry has narrowed profit margins due to increasingly fierce competition; we believe that competition is fierce in the raw wood pulp household paper market, and the company's differentiated positioning of recycled household paper enjoys low raw material costs and lower channel costs, so the increase in performance is worth looking forward to. 2. The market believes that the future prosperity of the box board paper industry is difficult to maintain; we believe that box board corrugated paper is a type of paper with a high market concentration, and its bargaining power with relatively strong upstream and downstream bargaining power is relatively strong. The future boom is expected to be a catalyst for maintaining stock price performance: the company's box board paper price has increased, the subsidiary Sharp Ace's listing process has accelerated, and the Jingtecai business has achieved a breakthrough.

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