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【浙商证券】栋梁新材年报点评:安置房保障房是未来增长点

浙商證券 ·  Apr 9, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Performance summary: 45% year-on-year decline. In 2012, the company achieved operating income of 10.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.91%; realized net profit of 86.41 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.53%; return on net assets was 8.13%, and basic earnings per share were 0.36 yuan, exceeding our previous expectations of 0.31 yuan. The decline in demand and low prices led to a decline in performance. First, due to the continued deterioration of the international and domestic macroeconomic situation, the company's sales volume of printed aluminum plate substrates declined. At the same time, the sales price of the company's aluminum plate base products used a pricing model of “main raw material (aluminum ingot) price+processing fee at the time of delivery”. In 2012, the company's new “energy-saving aluminum alloy profile project with an annual output of 50,000 tons” was completed and put into production, leading to significant fixed costs, unit mold costs, energy consumption costs, etc. of the product. The increase reduced the gross profit level of tons of products. Positive factors: The cash flow situation has improved markedly. The company's cash flow situation has improved markedly: in 2012, the net cash flow from the company's operating activities was 202.7 million yuan, an increase of 142 times over the previous year, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease of 80 million yuan in operating accounts receivable, while operating accounts payable increased by 33 million yuan over the same period last year. The increase in payable projects is approximately equal to disguised financing, and a significant increase in operating cash flow balances is beneficial to improving the ability of enterprises to resist cycles. Future outlook: Affordable housing for housing is the main growth point. Construction profiles are closely related to the construction industry and urbanization projects. As “urbanization” continues to advance, the potential of the small and medium-sized city market is gradually being stimulated, and the industry can still be expected to continue to develop rapidly; at the same time, with economic development and the increase in government housing construction efforts, the consumption of aluminum profiles for construction will still be strong for a long time, and government housing housing and affordable housing will be the main growth point in the future. Profit forecast and investment rating: Maintaining purchases, we predict that the company will be able to achieve net profit of 120 million yuan, 163 million yuan, and 197 million yuan in 2013-2015, with year-on-year increases of 39%, 36%, and 21%, respectively. The corresponding dynamic PE is 13 times, 9 times, and 8 times, respectively. As a leading domestic manufacturer of energy-saving aluminum profiles for construction, the company will benefit from the advancement of the country's urbanization process and the rapid development of government housing guarantee housing construction. We maintain the company's “buy” investment rating.

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