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【海通证券】德美化工:异辛烷即将投产,高端农牧业务前景广阔

海通證券 ·  Mar 19, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Demei Chemical is a chemical company whose business is textile additives, environmentally friendly foaming agents, and agriculture, animal husbandry and breeding. Fine chemicals are its main business, and performance growth is steady. Farming and animal husbandry was officially launched in 2011, forming the prototype of a complete industrial chain of farming, cold chain, and store sales. Sales have already been achieved in 2013. As demand for safe agricultural products, especially high-end pork, increases, agriculture and animal husbandry business will have broad prospects. 240,000 tons of isooctane will be put into production by the end of March, which will bring new profit growth points. Market demand for isooctane is expected to grow rapidly in the future as a high-octane gasoline additive that meets the standards after the implementation of the national five standards is promoted throughout the country. The 240,000-ton isooctane project invested by Zhongwei Chemical is expected to be put into operation by March 31, 2015, and is currently under normal construction according to expectations. The company's “safe agricultural products” have obtained quality certification, and high-end farming and animal husbandry business has ushered in rapid development. In 2013, the company's agriculture and animal husbandry was officially put into production and operation. Using “safe agricultural products” as the starting point, the company built a complete “pig-swamp-grass” circular ecosystem breeding industry chain, launched high-end pork products with the leading brand of “Yingnong Grass Pigs”, and ensured product safety through closed-loop control of “nursing-fattening-slaughtering-regional cold chain-stores” and carrying out quality control from every stage of production and marketing. After obtaining certification from the national quality department, it will facilitate market publicity and promotion and expand market influence. With the establishment of sales channels and the increase in market demand for safe agricultural products and high-end pork, agriculture and animal husbandry business will usher in rapid development. Falling oil prices are beneficial to the textile additives business, and procurement cost advantages will improve profit levels. Revenue from textile additives accounts for 82.5% of the company's total revenue, and the cost of raw materials for additives accounts for about 90% of production costs. Fluctuations in raw material costs are transmitted to product price adjustments. The procurement cost advantages brought about by falling oil prices are expected to be reflected in the first quarter of 2015, and the gross margin of the company's textile printing and dyeing additives will also increase. Give the company a “buy” investment rating. The commissioning of the 240,000-ton isooctane project will bring great profits to the company. The company's agricultural and animal husbandry projects are developing well, and falling oil prices will have a positive impact on the company. We expect the company's earnings per share for 2014-2016 to be 0.32 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.59 yuan respectively, giving the company 22 times the dynamic PE in 2015 corresponding to a valuation of 13 yuan+2 yuan to hold shares in other companies. The target price is 15 yuan, giving the company a “buy” investment rating for the first time. Risk warning: 1) Demand for isooctane continues to be sluggish; 2) The terminal cost of sales in the aquaculture industry is too high.

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