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【海通证券】现代投资:改扩建,平行通道分流是影响公司业绩的最大不确定

海通證券 ·  Aug 29, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Profit forecasts and investment advice. The company's current low valuation level mainly reflects the negative impact of the market on its future renovation and expansion and the opening and diversion of parallel lanes. We expect the company's operating revenue for 2011-2013 to be 1,927 billion yuan, 2,068 billion yuan, and 2,071 billion yuan respectively. The relevant basic assumptions are as follows: (1) the growth rates of toll revenue for each road in 2011 were: Changyong Road 8%, Changtan Road -2%, and Tan Lei Road 7.5%; (2) The gross production margins for each road in 2011 were: 6% for Changyong Road, 68.5% for Changtan Road, and 69% for Tan Lei Road; (3) Assuming that the expansion of Tanlei Road began in 2012, and is expected to have a certain impact on traffic flow in 2013, taking into account Tan Lai Parallel passages were opened on both the left and right sides of the road in 2013. Referring to the extent that Changtan Road was affected by the Changzhu Expressway diversion, we expect the revenue of Tanlei Road to drop by about 2% year on year in 2013. At the same time, since Changtan Road is located at the northern end of Tanlei Road, it will also have an impact. The growth rate is expected to remain at 2%. We expect the 2011-2013 EPS to be 2.02 yuan, 2.18 yuan, and 2.14 yuan respectively. The current stock price (August 26) corresponding to the 2011 dynamic PE value is 8.1 times, giving it a “neutral” rating for the first time. The target price is 16.2 yuan, or 8 times PE in 2011. risk factors. The impact of the renovation and expansion and opening of parallel lanes on the company's traffic flow is uncertain; the impact of toll road policy changes on the industry is uncertain.

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