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【长江证券】现代投资:“断头路”引流初步验证,环保平台价值逐渐兑现

長江證券 ·  Apr 21, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key events in the report describe Hyundai Investment's 2014 annual report. In that year, revenue increased 147% year on year to 4.331 billion yuan, gross margin fell 30.81 percentage points year on year to 30.39%, and attributable net profit fell 24.04% year on year to 410 million yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.41 yuan. The profit distribution plan is to pay 0.5 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. The main business performance of the incident review bottomed out. The company's revenue increased sharply by 147% in 2014, and gross margin fell by nearly half to 30.39%. Mainly, Shanghai Wogu Metal Materials Co., Ltd., which was acquired in the fourth quarter, mainly engaged in commodity spot trading, which greatly boosted revenue while lowering the company's overall gross profit margin. In terms of the main road toll business, highway revenue increased 25.37% to 1,977 billion yuan due to the completion of the overhaul of the Tanlei Expressway and the opening of the Xuhuai Expressway. However, due to the fact that traffic flow on the Tanlei Expressway has not fully recovered and the Xuhuai Expressway was affected by the “guillotine road,” the gross margin of the highway business was at a phased low, falling 2.36% to 58.31% year on year. As a result, net profit fell 24% year over year to 410 million. This year, as traffic flow continues to decline at the Tanlei Expressway and the opening of the “guillotine road” of the Xuhuai Expressway, performance will decline and pick up. The drainage logic for the opening of the “Guillotine Road” was initially verified, and the Q1 conversion traffic flow on the Xhuai Expressway increased by 82% over the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2015, the average daily converted traffic volume of the company's three main roads (Tanjiao, Changtan, and Changyong Expressway) increased 22% year over year. Of these, the Tanlei Expressway, which accounts for nearly 60% of revenue and gross margin, entered the second year after the completion of the overhaul. The average daily converted traffic volume increased 8% year over year, and the traffic flow recovery situation is good. It is worth mentioning that due to the opening of the “guillotine road” on the east side of the Xhuai Expressway in early 2015, the average daily traffic volume in the first quarter of this year was 22,900 vehicles, an increase of 82% compared to 12,600 vehicles in the second half of 2014. It is verified the drainage increase logic after the opening of the “guillotine road” of the Xuhuai Expressway. It is expected that the traffic flow of the Xuhuai Expressway will increase by 80%-100% year-on-year throughout the year, improving performance by more than 50 million. The resource+funding model in the field of environmental protection will gradually be implemented. The company signed a total order of 540 million yuan for five environmental protection projects in October last year, taking an important step for a platform-based company in the environmental protection sector; in November, it acquired 51% of Zhongke Clean Energy's shares, adding another powerful tool to its layout in the solid waste sector, and improving its comprehensive environmental protection layout. As the project signed by Modern Environment and the Provincial Housing and Construction Department for waste management in the Xiangjiang River Basin at the 7th China Expo was included in the “two supplies, two governance” category for new urbanization construction in Hunan Province, the company's model of quickly entering the market by integrating “resources” + “capital” and “technology” in the field of environmental protection will continue to be verified. Furthermore, the modern environment initiated the new Third Board listing process to give the market a benchmark for revaluing the company's value. Reiterate the recommendation. We are firmly optimistic that the investment logic of the company's “main business performance inflection point+PPP trend beneficiaries+environmental protection platform” remains unchanged. We predict that the company's 2015-2017 EPS will be 0.53 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.80 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 20, 15, and 13 times, and reaffirm the “recommended” rating.

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