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【德邦证券】津滨发展:天津滨海新区区域性地产龙头

[Debon Securities] Jinbin Development: Regional Real Estate Leader in Tianjin Binhai New Area

德邦證券 ·  Jul 21, 2008 02:00  · Researches

As a local state-owned real estate company in the Tianjin Binhai New Area, the rapid development of the Binhai New Area will bring great development opportunities to Jinbin's development. The company's business model is that the three business formats of industrial real estate, commercial real estate, and civil real estate coexist, with equal emphasis on real estate sales and ownership operations. When the housing market fluctuates greatly, the company's business model has a certain risk-averse advantage. It is expected that after the company's new private offering is completed, Jinbin Development will hold nearly 4.5 million square meters of land reserves in the Binhai New Area and Tianjin (currently the company already has more than 2 million square meters), making it the company with the largest land reserves in the Binhai New Area and Tianjin. The cost of the company's existing land reserves is low, and the value has increased significantly. According to preliminary forecasts, from 2007 to 2013, the company will be able to achieve cumulative sales revenue of nearly 35 billion yuan with its existing reserve assets and cumulative net equity profit of about 5 billion yuan (if the 8% discount value is taken, the eight-year discount value is about 3.5 billion yuan), and the company will grow rapidly from 2009 to 2013. We are not currently giving the company profit forecasts and investment ratings for the next 3 years. Risk warning, due to the company's unreasonable development pace, there were very few projects available for settlement in 2008. It is expected that 2008 performance will be difficult to grow, and performance pressure will be high. Furthermore, the real estate market in Tianjin is still in a slump, and the company's plans for additional projects are becoming more difficult. These will all make it very difficult for the company to develop, and the company's profit forecasts will also be greatly reduced.

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