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【海通证券】鑫茂科技调研简报

海通證券 ·  Jun 6, 2008 00:00  · Researches

The company's fan blade production takes up “time, geography, and human peace”. The company has many advantages in the design and manufacture of fan blades: (1) The company is one of the earliest domestic enterprises to enter fan blade production. Chairman Du Kerong visited the UK and the Netherlands as early as 2002 to inspect fan blade companies and decided to enter this industry. In fact, the company has a deep understanding of the risks of this industry. At one point, Xinmao Technology almost reached a technology transfer agreement with a British fan blade company, but eventually the cooperation was suspended because the transfer price was too high and the other party's conditions were too stringent. The company's self-developed 750KW fan blade mold only invested more than 1 million yuan, saving more than 60% compared to imports from abroad. (2) The company attracted top domestic technical talents engaged in blade production and formed its own technical echelon by promising core technology stocks to change Xinfeng Energy's shares (the three core technology backbone holds 37% of Xinfeng Energy's shares, and this level of incentive is rare among private enterprises). (3) Tianjin's superior geographical location. Tianjin is close to the Bohai Sea, has convenient land and sea transportation conditions, a strong industrial base, and many colleges. The development of the fan blade industry can be described as taking up time, geography, and peace of mind. At the end of last year, Tianjin established the Wind Energy Association. The settlement of domestic and foreign companies such as LM and Dongfang Electric will make Tianjin the capital of China's fan blades. (4) The 750KW and 1.5MW fan blades developed by the company are all independently developed and have independent intellectual property rights. Not only is the development cost far lower than that of enterprises that have introduced foreign technology, but they are also highly adaptable, and the design and process parameters can be changed at any time according to the specific requirements of customers. (5) The company has formed strategic alliances with major domestic power groups such as CLP International and China Water Investment. These enterprises have numerous wind farms and complete machine sales market resources in China. For example, CLP International has the right to operate a 10 million KW oversized wind farm in Guazhou, Gansu, which is one of only two 10 million KW wind farms in China. Good cooperation with them is conducive to the company's future orders and market development. In the future, the company will build 1.5MW fan blade production bases with these enterprises in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and Hainan to complete its own industrial layout and lay a solid foundation for generating 2 billion yuan in new energy business revenue over the next 3 years. The optical fiber project may expand production, and production capacity will more than double. The company's optical fiber project started in 2007, with a total production capacity of 770,000 core kilometers and a design capacity of 2 million core kilometers. It is estimated that production will reach 2.3 million core kilometers in 2008. All of the company's optical fiber materials are provided by Wuhan Changfei, and most of the products are also sold by Wuhan Changfei. Beginning in the second half of 2006, the optical fiber industry has entered a period of rapid recovery. Domestic fiber-to-home projects, 3G promotion, consumption upgrades, and exports to emerging developing countries such as India and Brazil will enable the optical fiber industry to maintain a growth rate of more than 25% over the next three years. Due to strong market demand, through communication and negotiations with Wuhan Changfei, the company intends to launch an optical fiber production expansion project in the near future. We expect that the company may more than double its current optical fiber production capacity, eventually forming a production capacity of 47-5 million core kilometers, with a total investment of nearly 70 million yuan. Production is expected to begin in early 2009. The additional issue is expected to be approved in early June this year and implemented in July. At the beginning of August 2007, the company announced the issuance of no more than 70 million shares at an issue price of 11.16 yuan/share. The majority shareholder, Xinmao Group, subscribes to the issued shares with 70% of the shares of Tianjin Shengjun Technology Development Company, 100% of Bettevio Technology Development Company, and 30.02% of the shares of Tianjin Xinmao Science Park Company. It plans to subscribe for no less than 25% of the total amount issued. The capital raised is to be invested in the new energy and new materials industry base, Tianjin automotive incubator, green energy industry base project. We have conducted field research on these projects, and the projects are progressing very smoothly, faster than expected. Moreover, there is great potential for land prices to appreciate, so there is room for a further increase in the group's assets loaded into listed companies, and tradable shareholders will benefit. In April 2008, the company's additional issuance was conditionally approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission. It is expected that approval will be obtained in early June, and the additional issuance will be implemented in July. Investment rating “buy”, target price: 28.00 yuan. Earnings per share for 2008-2009 are expected to reach 0.88 yuan and 1.41 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 528.57% and 60.22%, with outstanding growth. The dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2008 and 2009 is only 15.42 times and 9.62 times, far below the valuation level of listed domestic wind power companies and has obvious investment value. According to the weighted average valuation method, the company's target price: 28.00 yuan, currently underestimated 106.33%, giving it a “buy” investment rating.

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