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【国泰君安证券】高鸿股份:并购高阳捷迅获批,期待更多共赢合作

國泰君安 ·  Sep 10, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Maintaining the “Overweight” rating, the target price was raised to 17.24 yuan. The company obtained approval from the Securities Regulatory Commission for the wholly-owned merger and acquisition of Gaoyang Jiexun through a bridge, and the cooperation between Gao Hong and Gaoyang is expected to open a new chapter. We maintained Gao Hong's 2014-2015 EPS at 0.12/0.31 yuan, respectively. Considering that the two are expected to be more deeply integrated in terms of business after the wholly-owned merger and acquisition, we raised the target price to 17.24 yuan (+12.7%) based on the market value of 10 billion yuan after the merger and acquisition, and maintained the “gain” rating. Goyang Jiexun is in a phase of explosive growth. The company further disclosed Gaoyang Jiexun's business situation in the acquisition evaluation report, which also supports our judgment that Jiexun is in a stage of explosive growth. 1) 2014H1, Jiexun's phone bill transaction volume reached 14.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 227%, and the phone bill revenue/transaction volume ratio was 0.49%-0.69%; 2) The market share of the company's Internet phone bill recharge was about 50%, about equal to the sum of the markets of eBao, Opel and Shenzhou, which had an absolute advantage; 3) The overall exchange volume was 1.99 billion, an increase of 3.2% over the previous year, and remained stable. Join hands with Jiexun and look forward to more O2O cooperation. Gao Yang Jiexun has built a “moat” of broad competition in the field of internet phone recharge, and we expect recharge turnover to reach more than 35 billion dollars in 2014. After joining hands with Gao Hong, Jiexun will receive more capital support to further expand the Internet recharge business by taking advantage of the “e-commerce” trend of “phone bill recharge.” Meanwhile, Gaoyang Jiexun's original 19e assets are still out of reach. According to its website, 19e has 500,000 offline franchisees and sales surpassed 30 billion yuan in 2013, making it the number one offline e-commerce service platform in China. We judge that based on Gaoyang Jiexun's current huge transaction flow and third party payment licenses, the two are expected to build O2O platforms in the fields of phone bill cards, point cards, air tickets, etc. in the future. Risk warning: Online recharge competition is intensifying; the expansion of comprehensive exchange platforms falls short of expectations.

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