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【湘财证券】华神集团:突破 进取,生物健康产业之路前程似锦

湘財證券 ·  Aug 25, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The biggest highlight - Licatin has broken through the bottleneck, and continued high growth can be expected. Small doses of radiation helped Licatin break through promotion bottlenecks. Currently, stringent environmental and equipment requirements for high-dose radionuclide treatment hinder the promotion of licatin. To this end, the company introduced targeted small doses of ricatine, and the second half of the year will soon enter a period of substantial promotion. Judging from now on, it is less restricted in trials, can be promoted in general hospitals, and it has been initially proven that it has obvious curative effects in preventing recurrence and metastasis of liver cancer after surgery, and has great market prospects in the future. The phase IV clinical trial is coming to an end, and market recognition is expected to increase. The phase IV clinical trial of licatin is nearing completion. The report is expected to be released in the second half of the year. The clinical efficacy revealed at that time will determine the lifelong happiness of licatin. Judging from the clinical efficacy of licatin, the efficacy rate showed a steady upward trend during phase II and phase III clinical trials. This is a positive sign. We believe that with the gradual improvement of dosage methods, the efficiency of phase IV clinical trials is expected to further improve, thus laying the foundation for the subsequent promotion of licatin. The market space of Sanqi Tongshu is large, leading the growth of the proprietary Chinese medicine business. Compared to mature products such as Nasal Soothing and Vitalisu, which are growing slowly, Sanqitongshu capsules grew rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 57% from 2007 to 2009. Considering that traditional Chinese medicine has been widely accepted to treat cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and the technical and curative advantages of Sanqitongshu capsules, we believe that Sanqitongshu capsules are expected to achieve continuous high growth and become the main engine for the development of proprietary Chinese medicine business. The reserves of new products are abundant, and the future of the biotechnology and health industry is promising. The company has basically been formed. The sustainable development strategy of “production generation, reserve generation, R&D generation” reflects the proactive attitude of the company's management. Among them, kits for the quantitative determination of recombinant human epidermal growth factor and oxidized low-density lipoprotein for the new drug freeze-dried eye drops will all start contributing to performance next year. Judging from the ophthalmology market and the coronary heart disease diagnosis market separately, both have good market prospects. Fund-raising projects promote industry concentration, and the management cost ratio is expected to fall. We think the company will implement it in the second half of the Targeted distribution is a probable event. Apart from the biotechnology transformation and expansion project, which has basically been completed, the rest of the fund-raising projects are expected to be put into operation in 2012, which will solve the production capacity problem of key pharmaceutical products. Furthermore, the production bases of all major new subsidiaries will be concentrated in Huashen Science and Technology Park to achieve resource sharing and optimal allocation, which can improve management efficiency to a certain extent. Profit forecasting and investment ratings. Without considering targeted increases, we forecast the company's EPS for 2010-2012 to be 0.07 yuan, 0.27 yuan, and 0.41 yuan, respectively. We believe that with the launch of low-dose licatine on the market, licatin will effectively break through the original promotion bottleneck, and with the launch of new products, it is expected to achieve explosive growth. However, judging from the stock price, the company's PE in 2011 and 2012 was 54 times and 35 times, respectively, which already basically reflected the valuation premium brought about by high growth, thus maintaining the company's “increased holdings” investment rating. Risk warning: The promotion of low-dose licatine is not ideal; prices of leading drugs have been drastically reduced.

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