The main downstream of the company's BDO products is spandex, with the spandex industry strengthening, the price is all the way high, the profit is good, and the accounting gross profit should be more than 30%; with the raw material price entering a period of steady rise, the BDO gross margin of mid-stream chemicals should be difficult to sustain, but the decline will not be too large. BDO products are still a high-speed investment period for about two years, and the situation of domestic overcapacity will continue to increase, but the effective capacity will not be released too much in the next two to three years. At present, the maleic anhydride plant has been in operation for more than two months, with a load of about 60%, and the calcium carbide alkyne aldehyde plant is at full capacity.
The company's PVA products are mainly used in coatings, adhesives, textile sizes and other fields. At present, PVA consumption of paint accounts for more than 40% of the total consumption, and the proportion of adhesive is increasing. The upstream and downstream structure of the product is relatively stable, and it is expected that the gross profit margin of PVA products will remain stable. At present, the operating rate of PVA products is basically full load.
The company's latex products maintained a high gross profit in 2009, which accounted for a significant increase in the company's profit contribution. at present, the company has set up a joint venture subsidiary with Hansen in the United States and began to set foot in the upstream of latex products; it will not become a major contribution point in the short term.
The company's 1 million tons of coke and more than 10 million tons of coke in the surrounding areas will bring sufficient coke oven gas support to the company. Even without considering the coke of Zhaocheng Fine Chemical Park in the future, more than 60% of the total production capacity can be guaranteed. The company has basically completed its overhaul for nearly two months, which also brings good preparations for the release of production capacity in 2011.
With the assistance of the actual controller, the company has basically solved the source of crude benzene, which comes from coal tar. Due to the shortage of tar resources, crude benzene itself can be recognized as a scarce resource. The solution of the source of crude benzene in the company can be regarded as obtaining resources, which will improve the industry chain of hydrogenation of crude benzene-maleic anhydride-BDO.
The company is expected to earn 0.06,0.64,0.59 yuan per share from 2010 to 2012. The company's main products are in the boom period, the whole can enjoy 22 times valuation, short-term target price 14.1 yuan. Our valuation is obtained at the margin of relative safety, and there is a further improvement in the industrial chain, which may lead to higher-than-expected growth and be upgraded to a "buy" rating.