Main points of investment:
BDO industry situation: supply is tight, profit is high
Due to various reasons, the domestic production capacity of the newly put into operation is not smooth, resulting in the actual supply of BDO production supply is tight, we believe that this tight supply pattern will not change in the short term.
The BDO of the company is divided into 75000 tons by alkyne aldehyde method and 75000 tons by maleic anhydride method. At present, the full-load production of alkyne aldehyde and the maleic anhydride method are still being debugged, and the load is low and needs to be debugged. It is estimated that there will not be a large amount in 2011, and the volume is expected to be 28000 tons in 2011.
According to the current price and cost estimates, the company's BDO gross profit is considerable. The average BDO price in the first quarter is about 21300 yuan / ton, which has remained at a high of 24000 yuan / ton since April. Compared with the first quarter, the gross profit per ton has increased by 3000 yuan.
PVA industry situation: production capacity is transferred to areas where energy is cheap, and prosperity is improving.
Because the cost of calcium carbide and steam is relatively high in the cost structure of PVA, in the long run, the PVA industry tends to transfer to areas with low energy prices. Recently, Inner Mongolia Shuangxin, Lanzhou Lanwei and Ningxia have invested in the PVA industry, which is mainly based on the low energy cost in the northwest region and has a certain competitive advantage.
Shanxi 3D and Wanwei high-tech are more flexible to PVA. Under the same price of raw materials, the price per 100 yuan of PVA increases, resulting in the thickening of Shanxi 3D EPS and Wanwei high-tech EPS by 0.017 yuan. However, Shanxi three-dimensional PVA raw materials vinyl acetate outsourcing proportion is large.
The key points of the company:
BDO and PVA leaders, fine chemicals have strong strength and enjoy high prosperity.
There is room for improvement in the deficiency of resources: in Shanxi, while crude benzene and coking plant are lack of profitability and are trapped by resources, so there is room for upward improvement.
Investment suggestion
From 2011 to 2013, the company's EPS is expected to be 0.48,0.58 and 0.67 yuan respectively, giving a buy rating.