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【湘财证券】友利控股:2010年将实现业绩反转

湘財證券 ·  Apr 23, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Earnings per share fell 66.9% year on year. The company achieved operating income of 819.319 million yuan in 2009, down 28.71% year on year; operating profit of 259.0.1 million yuan, down 73.14% year on year; achieved earnings per share of 0.0679 yuan, down 66.9% year on year. The main reason for the sharp decline in performance was due to poor demand for spandex products in the company's main business and a sharp drop in product prices. Real estate business development intensified. In the first half of 2009, when the spandex business was sluggish, the company moderately increased real estate development efforts and made real estate a new profit growth point for the company's operating performance. In 2009, it achieved a total operating income of 86.999 million yuan and an operating profit of 206.02 million yuan, accounting for 22.27% of the company's total operating profit. The company's performance in 2010 will achieve a V-shaped reversal in April 2009. Due to the gradual improvement in downstream demand, the spandex industry will also gradually break out of its trough, and the operating rate and average inventory level will gradually return to normal. However, the previous crisis has caused spandex producers around the world to slow down the pace of production capacity investment. The rate of new energy deployment is far lower than the rate of increase in demand, thus bringing the spandex industry as a whole to a stage where supply and demand are insufficient. The rapid rise in spandex prices since the beginning of the year also confirms this. We expect the company's average price of spandex in 2010 to be 60,000 yuan/ton. At the same time, the company's production capacity of 12,000 tons was put into operation just in time for spandex prices to rise. This will enable the company to achieve a V-shaped reversal in 2010 after experiencing poor performance in 2009. The differentiated products are in line with the development direction. The company's 12,000-ton new production project and 0.63-ton technical improvement project are all differentiated spandex products, and the company's differentiation rate has increased to 50%. In the context of China's low degree of differentiation of spandex, an increase in the company's differentiated spandex product ratio will undoubtedly enhance the company's future profitability. The operating rate of aramid 1313 is expected to be at least 80% in 2010. International demand for aramid 1313 suddenly dropped last year, and the company's sales volume of aramid 1313 declined. However, since New Year's Day 2010, foreign demand has improved and orders have increased, and the company has restarted production lines that were shut down a few years ago. Currently, all three aramid production lines are in operation, with an operating rate of 80% to 90%. We expect the operating rate of Aramid 1313 to be at least 80% this year.

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