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【齐鲁证券】ST中润:增发摘帽催发短期股价,市场潜力提升长期价值

齊魯證券 ·  Dec 14, 2009 00:00  · Researches

High quality projects guarantee performance over the next three years, which is expected to lift the cap. After restructuring, the company became a regional real estate leader in Shandong, and its performance exploded in 2009. The three high-quality real estate projects currently have abundant saleable resources, strong profitability, better-than-expected sales conditions, and more advance payments, which are a strong guarantee of performance over the next three years. At the same time, the Jinan Zhongrun Century City Phase II office building project with a high gross margin, Weihai Korea Window's specialty market, and the Zibo OCT ordinary housing project, which accounts for the highest share of construction area, will all experience a peak in settlement next year. The company's additional issuance approval is progressing smoothly, and the return on the fund-raising projects is high. This will act as a catalyst for stock prices. The company's current fund-raising of 970 million yuan will be invested in Jinan Century City Phase III, Zibo OCT Phase 5, and Weihai Korea Window Phase III. Fund-raising projects will have good return prospects. According to previous company proposals, the return on investment for the Jinan project is 27%, the return on investment for the Zibo project is 30.77%, and the return on investment for the Weihai project is 23.6%. The regional market in Shandong has benefited from national policies and the urbanization process, and has huge potential. The company's current projects are distributed in various core cities in Shandong Province, mainly including second- and third-tier cities such as Jinan, Weihai, and Zibo. The real estate market policies in these cities continue to be favorable, and potential demand has yet to be released. At the same time, the market trend of these second- and third-tier cities is still relatively stable compared to first-tier cities, and there have been no major ups and downs, so there is huge potential for later development. Strategically position the second- and third-tier urban markets in the province, and actively reserve land to implement sustainable development. The company is currently a major real estate developer in Jinan, Zibo and Weihai. The future strategy will still be based in Shandong and actively expand the second- and third-tier city markets in the province. The company has abundant land reserves in the core cities of Jinan, Qingdao, Zibo and Weihai in the province, which can guarantee the company's development volume for the next 5 to 6 years. Moreover, the company's land acquisition cost is relatively low; the price of land is 200,000 to 300,000 yuan per mu. The company will increase the construction area next year, and the annual development volume is expected to reach more than 800,000 square meters. Furthermore, the company also has plans to develop resource-based products. Valuation and investment recommendations: At the end of 2008, the restructuring party promised that the company's EPS for the years 09 and 10 would not be lower than 0.30 yuan and 0.35 yuan. We expect the company's performance to exceed the promises made at the time of restructuring. Earnings per share for the years 09, 10, and 11 will reach 0.32 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.87 yuan, and the price-earnings ratio corresponding to the stock price on the previous trading day is 29.6 times, 18.9 times, and 10.9 times. In the short term, removing the cap and increasing issuance are still catalysts for stock prices. In the long run, the company has valuation advantages and market potential where the project is located, maintaining the company's “recommended” rating.

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