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【国金证券】渝开发公司研究简报-大树底下好乘凉

國金證券 ·  Mar 15, 2009 00:00  · Researches

The basic conclusion is that the real estate business has failed to expand. Chongqing Development is the only real estate A-share listed company in Chongqing, but due to diversified investment development paths and improper capital operation, the scale of development did not match its status as a listed company. Since 2000, the total number of construction projects is about 300,000 square meters. Currently, the land reserve equity construction area is 390,000 square meters, which is insufficient compared to its 634 million share capital. In the future, the main business will be carried out by shareholders. The majority shareholder of Chongqing Development is Chongqing Urban Construction Investment Group. It is one of the two major groups assigned land reserve functions by the Chongqing Municipal Government, so Chongqing Development has a unique advantage in obtaining land resources. The specific method of obtaining a project is through participation in first-level development of shareholders' reserve projects or direct transfer of shareholders' assets. The regional market capacity is large. All of the company's projects are located in Chongqing. Chongqing has ranked among the highest in the country in terms of residential sales over the years. In 2008, the sales area surpassed Shanghai, making it the largest selling city in the country. On the one hand, the large market capacity is due to Chongqing's large population base, which had already surpassed 15 million at the end of 2007; on the other hand, it is due to its low urbanization rate, but the process is accelerating. A short-term overall listing or large-scale asset injection is unlikely. Due to current restrictions in the capital market, it is more difficult for listed companies to publicly issue additional purchases of group assets, and it is relatively easy to implement targeted increases to major shareholders. However, the majority shareholder currently owns 82% of the listed company's shares. According to the requirements of the securities law, the largest shareholder cannot own more than 90% of the listed company's shares, so based on the current total share capital of the company of 634 million yuan, the company can issue up to 50 million additional shares. Currently, the company's stock price is about 10 yuan, and the maximum amount of assets that can be purchased is 500 million yuan, so there will be no overall listing or large-scale asset injection in the short term. Regardless of the asset injection situation, the company's future performance will be relatively stable. Earnings per share are expected to be 0.18, 0.25, and 0.26 yuan from 09 to 11, with dynamic price-earnings ratios of 56, 41, and 41 times, respectively. The net assets were revalued at 4.56 yuan, and the stock price already had a 126% premium compared to the net assets. Since it is unlikely that the company will achieve an overall listing or large-scale asset injection in the short term, it is given a holding rating based on the current high valuation level.

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