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【平安证券】盐田港三季报点评:三季度好转,关注公司继续外延式扩张

平安證券 ·  Oct 18, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Matters: The company's total operating income for the first three quarters was 238 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.37%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 274 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.36%, and EPS of 0.14 yuan; total operating income for the third quarter was 77.23 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.83%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 94.49 million yuan, up 2.58% year-on-year, and EPS 0.05 yuan. Ping An's view: The recovery in the company's performance in the third quarter stemmed from the impact of non-recurring profit and loss on the company's revenue for the first three quarters, which fell 12%, 3%, and 18% year on year, respectively, and the company's net profit increased -40%, -2%, and 3% year on year, respectively. The decline in revenue in the third quarter stemmed from the reduction of road toll standards in Guangdong Province in the second half of the year; profit in the third quarter increased 3% year-on-year, far better than the 15% decline in the first to third quarter, mainly due to the increase in investment income from Yantian International and Caofeidian Port Company, which rose from 69.37 million yuan in the same period last year to 88.02 million yuan this year, plus there was no impact on revenue from the transfer of the Wutong Mountain Tunnel in the first half of the year. There was a marked improvement in the third quarter, but the company's future growth rate is still bearish on the company's main business, Huiyan Expressway, due to the impact of the lower fee policy in Guangdong Province in the second half of the year. However, the growth rate of the main business in the Yantian port area reached 12% in August, a marked improvement, and investment income also increased year on year. However, due to industrial transfer and the slowdown in economic growth in Europe and the US, and the continuous regulation of expressways, the future growth rate is still bleak. The future focus is still on asset restructuring. It is not ruled out that continued investment in dry bulk ports may be due to industrial transfer and the economic downturn in Europe and the US. We judge that the container port industry in the Pearl River Delta has entered a slow growth trend. We expect the aggressive management's future plans to remain an extended expansion, specifically including continued asset restructuring and investment in dry bulk ports in the North. Asset injection was stopped at the beginning of the year due to a long suspension of trading, but injection expectations still exist. After injection, the company's asset size and profitability will increase dramatically. Furthermore, the company went out to acquire a 35% stake in Caofeidian Port Company last year. With limited room for growth in the Yantian port area, the possibility of continuing to increase investment in dry bulk ports is not ruled out. Investment Ratings and Profit Forecast We downgraded the company's 2012-2014 profit forecast from 0.24, 0.26, and 0.26 yuan to 0.19, 0.19, and 0.21 yuan. Currently, the stock price corresponding to PE is 20.5, 21.2, and 19.3 times, respectively. Considering the company's asset injection expectations and the imagination of an extended expansion brought by active management, the company maintained the company's “recommended” rating. Risks suggest that continued macroeconomic downturn affects port throughput; road toll policies continue to be regulated; asset injection is slow; and epitaxial expansion has failed.

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