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【国泰君安】香溢融通:紧缩受益,价量双升

國泰君安 ·  Dec 16, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Xiang Yi Rong's financial service system centered on pawnbroking, guarantee, and leasing has been improved day by day. These three major businesses cover the main areas of SME financing, and each has a focus and coordination, which can meet most of the financing needs of small and medium-sized enterprises, thus forming an effective replacement for bank credit. Risk projects left over from the company's history have been basically resolved; in order to prevent new risks, the company has also strengthened risk control in various aspects such as business models, business processes, and risk control indicators, and formed a complete risk control system, which also lays the foundation for continued growth in the future. Pawnbroking and leasing are developing steadily, and guarantee and entrustment loans are growing rapidly. In particular, entrustment loans have recently become the fastest growing type of financial business for companies due to their characteristics of relative flexibility and moderate duration and risk. In the middle of this year, the size of entrustment loans has increased 40% from the beginning of the year; the annual interest rate has also risen from 15% at the beginning of the year to 20% now. Moderate credit tightening will highlight the substitution effect of financial services, and financial services such as guarantees, entrusted loans, etc. will usher in a period of opportunity for rapid development, and prices can be expected to rise sharply. Financial services will boost the rapid growth of the company's performance. As a result, we raised the company's 2010-2012 EPS expectations to 0.21 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.44 yuan, corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 48%, and 42%. The dynamic PE was 57 times, 39 times, and 27 times, respectively, and the dynamic PB in 2010 was 3.9 times. Xiangyi Finance is higher than the US pawnbrokerage industry and domestic financial companies, which reflects its premium as the only diversified financial listed company in China; the company will benefit from moderate austerity and enter a period of rapid growth, which will support the company's continued high valuation. We raised the company's rating from neutral to prudent increase in holdings, and raised the target price accordingly to 13.6 yuan, corresponding to 4 times PB in 2011. The double rise in prices brought about by austerity will be the catalyst; the risk factor is that austerity may lead to an increase in the bad debt ratio. It is recommended to actively focus on the driving effect of monetary policy changes on its performance.

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