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【华泰证券】宁波海运:运价回升和高速公路减亏致公司业绩增长

華泰證券 ·  Aug 25, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: In the first half of the year, the company achieved main business revenue of 590 million yuan, an increase of 39.83% over the same period last year; realized net profit of 131 million yuan, an increase of 845.76% over the same period last year. Earnings per share were realized at 0.036 yuan, after deducting non-recurring profit and loss of 0.033 yuan. The company completed freight volume of 8.9041 million tons, an increase of 23.5%; the completed freight turnover was 15.943 billion tons/kilometers, an increase of 37.8%. Revenue from the main shipping business was 477 million yuan, an increase of 30.63% over the previous year. The operating costs of the company's freight business increased by 36.09% year on year, and the gross margin of the freight business decreased by 3.66 percentage points year on year. The main reason for the sharp increase in freight forwarding costs is that fuel costs increased by 48.75% over the same period last year. The operating conditions of the Mingzhou Expressway invested by the company continued to improve: import and export traffic was 15,116 vehicles, an increase of about 62% over the same period last year; achieved toll revenue of 114 million yuan, an increase of 98.3% over the same period last year; and realized net profit of 30 million yuan, a loss of 42 million yuan over the same period last year. Based on the above analysis, the main reasons for the increase in the company's performance in the first half of the year were: the coal freight rate signed by the company this year increased 9% compared to last year; the economy recovered in the first half of the year, coal demand increased year on year, and market freight performance in the first half of the year was good; the average capacity in the first half of the year increased by about 10% compared to the same period last year, and traffic volume increased; and Mingzhou rapidly reduced losses. Coastal coal transportation is still the company's main business. In the first half of the year, coastal coal transportation prices performed relatively well, but after entering the third quarter, freight prices declined, and it is expected that they will rise again in the fourth quarter. However, it is expected that the average freight rate level in the second half of the year will hardly exceed that of the first half. This will have a negative impact on the company's non-contracted coal transportation business. Furthermore, there are obvious signs that large shippers such as power plants are entering coal transportation, and the company is too small, so there is a possibility that bargaining power with power plants will be weakened. The company currently has ships under construction: 1 57,500 ton and 2 +1 47,500 ton bulk carriers. Additionally, it has purchased 1 70,000-ton and 2 bulk carriers, which are expected to be delivered in the third quarter. The company's capacity expansion remains conservative. As traffic continues to grow, the company holds 51% of shares in Mingzhou Expressway and is expected to achieve break-even this year and is expected to be profitable in '11. The company's earnings per share for 10-11 years are expected to be 0.08 yuan to 0.10 yuan. In the second half of the year, the company increased its effective capacity as 43,000 ton bulk carriers delivered at the end of June and the purchase of 70,000 ton bulk carriers that have not yet been delivered. The performance it can contribute is limited. Given market conditions, there is no short-term increase in freight rates. Therefore, we believe there are few factors that can stimulate a company's stock price to rise in the short term. Maintain the company's “wait-and-see” investment rating.

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