share_log

【中投证券】亚通股份:2008年年报点评

中投證券 ·  Apr 1, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points:? The company's core ferry business continues to grow. A total of 8.0829 million passengers were transported throughout the year, an increase of 5.4% over the same period last year; 1,220,300 vehicles were transported, an increase of 3.5% over the same period last year. However, with the development of Chongming, the construction of a land transportation system between Shanghai and Chongming has put the company's ferry business at risk of being replaced. In the short term, the upcoming East Line project (Pudong, Shanghai - Changxing Island - Chongming Island) has limited diversion of the company's passengers. In addition, the company invested 38 million yuan to build a large high-speed passenger ship that left the factory at the end of December 2008, so it is expected that it will also have a certain stimulating effect on traffic volume. In the long run, with the commencement of the West Line project and the extension of rail transit to Chongming Island, the ferry business will eventually fade out of the market, and the company's main business is under pressure to transform. Revenue from the tourism business has doubled, but the base is still relatively low. As an effort for strategic transformation, the company actively participated in ecotourism in Chongming. In 2008, tourism business revenue increased 106% year on year, but the base figure was still very low, accounting for only 2% of the company's main revenue. With the deepening of development in Chongming and the opening of the tunnel bridge project, it is expected that the tourism business will maintain high growth. The real estate business is expected to continue to contribute revenue to the company starting next year. The nearly 100,000 square meter “Chongming New Town Plot No. 24” commercial housing project controlled by the company is expected to gradually be converted into revenue in 2010, providing a new growth point for the company's performance. Higher fuel prices and increased financial expenses led to a sharp decline in the company's net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss in 2008. The average oil price in 2008 increased by 21.17% compared to 2007, resulting in a 2% decrease in gross margin in the transportation business. Also, due to the company's investment in the “Chongming New Town Plot No. 24” real estate project, bank loans have increased, and financial expenses have increased 112% over last year. Maintain the company's “neutral” investment rating. We expect the company's operating income for 2009-2011 to be 5300 million, 710 million and 880 million, respectively; net profit attributable to the parent company of 27 million, 40 million and 55 million, respectively; and basic earnings per share of 0.08, 0.13 and 0.17 yuan, respectively, with an average annual increase of 29%. The company's short-term valuation has fully reflected various favorable expectations and maintained a “neutral” investment rating. Considering the development opportunities of Chongming, investors are advised to pay long-term attention.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment