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【湘财证券】天地源:伴随西高新平稳成长,产品线和精品化助推扩张

[Xiangcai Securities] Tiandiyuan: With the steady growth of Western Hi-Tech, product lines and specialization promote expansion

湘財證券 ·  May 31, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The company is a typical listed real estate company based on a development zone. The Xi'an High-tech Industrial Development Zone Real Estate Development Company holds 56.42% of the company's shares and is the company's absolute controlling shareholder. Xi'an Hi-Tech (Group) Co., Ltd. holds 100% of the interest in the Xi'an High-tech Industrial Development Zone Real Estate Development Company. It is a large state-owned enterprise group under the Xi'an High-tech Industrial Development Zone. It is the main entity involved in urban support and infrastructure construction under the Xi'an High-tech Industrial Development Zone. Other shareholders do not hold many of the company's shares; only one public fund holds 4.60% of the company's shares. Excluding these two major shareholders, the remaining eight major shareholders of the company all hold less than 0.25% of the shares.

It started in Xi'an High-tech Zone. Before the company went public, the company was a high-tech real estate company, and all of Gaoxin Real Estate's projects were located in the Xi'an High-tech Zone. This regional focus helps companies concentrate resources, familiarize themselves with the market, and grow rapidly.

An orderly expansion in the “1+3” style. After the asset restructuring, the company began to expand geographically. In July 2005, the company established the first development company outside of Xi'an, Tianjin Tiandiyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd., which achieved the first step in the company's expansion in the Bohai Rim region. The company started construction of the Suzhou Olive Bay project in April 2006, successfully achieving the layout in the Yangtze River Delta region. In May 2006, the company completed due diligence on the Shenzhen Xijing Company and the joint construction of the project, and the company successfully implemented the project layout in the Pearl River Delta region using capital management methods. At this point, the company has completed a strategic layout for the three major economic circles outside of Xi'an: the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta.

Build the cornerstone of the product line. The company has now basically formed a product line system. The product lines are divided into New Chinese, Modern Simplicity, and MicroEurope; among the three product lines, each product line has a mid-range product line and a high-end product line. The product line relies on gardens, house types, parts, facades, public decoration, etc. to define and summarize. The boutique strategy makes the products high-end. The company was involved in commercial real estate in the early days and had a certain first-mover advantage in developing high-end products. Second, the company's products are positioned as so-called cultural real estate, and implanting the concept of culture into the real estate carrier enhances the added value of the product. Third, the company has already set up operations in three regions outside of Xi'an. When entering a new city, in order to shape its brand image, it must position itself with high-end boutique projects. All of the above reasons have caused the company's product positioning to be high-end. Currently, in terms of location selection, the company's projects mainly choose emerging urban areas. This is related to the company's experience in developing high-tech regions. Although the company's project area is generally located in a non-core area of the city, the company has a relatively large selection of project apartment types. In the current market context, the company's project sales will be affected in some ways. If you look at it from the perspective of market recovery, the company's projects can get more sales growth in the recovery because they are biased towards improving demand.

The company was given an “increase in holdings” rating, with a target price of 5.00 yuan. Excluding the investment in the Liangjiatan project, the company's sales projects and GAV owned properties reached 7.058 billion yuan, reaching 6.517 billion yuan after deducting net debt, equivalent to revalued net assets of 629 yuan per share. Compared with the closing price of 3.70 yuan on 2012/5/21, which was 41.7% off the closing price of 3.70 yuan, the absolute valuation had a certain valuation appeal. We forecast earnings per share of $0.32, $0.37, and $0.50 respectively from 2012 to 2014. Based on the closing price on 2012/5/21, the corresponding PE was 11.72 times, 10.02 times, and 7.44 times, respectively. The net assets per share from 2012 to 2014 were $2.56, $2.89, and $3.33 respectively. The PB corresponding to 2012/5/21 was 1.45 times, 1.29 times, and 1.12 times, respectively.

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