Core point of view. The company's rice wine business is still in a period of adjustment. The company's sales for the third quarter increased 4.7% year on year, net profit attributable to the parent company fell 45% year on year, January to September sales fell 3% year on year, and performance fell 16% year on year. Unlike liquor, the sales product structure of rice wine has not been downgraded under pressure from the three public consumption, that is, the unit price has remained stable, but due to the reduction in the frequency of eating out and the increase in financial pressure on distributors, rice wine consumption has declined markedly, affecting sales. We expect that the pressure on the company's rice wine business will remain strong in the fourth quarter. It is expected that Japanese sake will be on the market by the end of We expect the company's cooking liquor to be marketed by the end of the year. Cooking wine is the same as rice wine-based wine. Rice wine companies have an innate advantage in entering the cooking wine business, and as the main seasoning, cooking wine has eliminated regional and seasonal restrictions that rice wine is currently unable to break through, and sales elasticity is greater when properly operated. Jinfeng's cooking wine will be operated under a new sub-brand, thereby reducing the impact on the original drinking rice wine brand positioning; it may first be listed in a supermarket in Shanghai, using the group's channel resources. Sparkling rice wine is expected to be marketed next year. Considering the high operating pressure this year, from the perspective of cost control, the company's bubbly rice wine may go on the market next year. This will be a major innovation in rice wine products, or it may break through bottlenecks such as high levels of traditional rice wine, difficulty in ingestion, and aging target consumers, in line with the current trend of reducing alcohol consumption and innovating across borders. Financial forecasting and investment advice. Since the operating pressure on this year's rice wine business exceeded previous expectations, we lowered our 14-16 sales and profit forecast, 14-16 sales compound growth rate of 5.9%, and performance compound growth rate of 2.7%, and 14-16 EPS, respectively, 0.19,0.21,0.25 yuan (original forecast value 0.26,0.30,0.36 yuan). Considering the company's potential new product release and Shanghai state-owned enterprise reform expectations, we gave the company a 25% premium on the historical average valuation of 35 times, giving the company a 44x valuation in 2015, corresponding to the target price 9.19 yuan, maintaining an increase in holdings. Risk warning. Overseas expansion is not highly anticipated, and the launch of new products falls short of expectations