Key investment points: Road transport leader in Jiangxi Province. The company accounts for 70% of first-class passenger terminals and 40% of second-level passenger terminals in Jiangxi Province, and owns 8 out of 11 local and municipal passenger transport enterprises. According to the ranking of “China's Top 100 Honest Road Transport Enterprises” issued by the China Road Transport Association, the company ranked 9th in 2011, making it a veritable leading enterprise in the road transport industry. Strong merger and acquisition integration capabilities to boost future growth. Since the merger and acquisition of Jingdezhen Changyun in 2003, the company has carried out mergers and acquisitions within and outside the province one after another. The ROE of early-stage M&A projects has generally reached more than 20%, and recent acquisition projects have also achieved expected returns. Assuming that the 100% equity holding of Shangrao Auto Transport and the acquisition of Yingtan Changyun are completed in 2012, we expect the main business profit to maintain a growth rate of more than 10%. Furthermore, based on the company's history of successful mergers and acquisitions integration experience and consistent mergers and acquisitions strategy+further cost reduction, it is expected that the main business will grow in the future. There are points of interest in various new businesses: A. Transportation of small parts using passenger car seats as carriers: With the booming development of e-commerce, very low cost advantages, and the advantages of the province's passenger terminal network deep into counties and towns, it is expected to drive the small express service to maintain rapid growth; B. The media business has made a big contribution: In the future, Jiangxi Changyun will effectively develop advertising resources such as seat covers, car bodies, and stations that have not received much attention in the past. We expect to bring a good profit contribution. C. In addition, businesses such as urban and rural buses+school buses also have good prospects. The value of the company is underestimated: A. The resources of the old station are underestimated. Housing, buildings and intangible assets on the company's books amount to 1.1 billion yuan. Most of them are stations and land. As some cities relocate their central passenger terminals to suburban areas, all of the company's old terminal resources are expected to be reflected. B. Conservative depreciation policy: Since its listing, the depreciation period for the company's passenger vehicles has been 5 years, while its peers have basically had to be at least 6 years. As the scale of buses and the price of new cars have increased, conservative depreciation policies have suppressed the company's value expression. We expect the company's earnings per share for 2012-2014 to be 0.76, 0.95, and 1.10 yuan respectively. Combining absolute valuation and relative valuation, we think it is reasonable to give the company a 12-year 17 times PE valuation, corresponding to the target price of 12.92 yuan, giving the company a buying rating for the first time. The risk indicates the risk of high-speed rail diversion: The construction of the Xiangpu Railway, which opened to traffic in 2013, and the Hangzhou-Chang passenger line, which was completed at the end of 2014, will create a certain diversion risk for existing long-distance passenger traffic. Other risks: security risk, new business development risk, merger risk.
【东方证券】江西长运:亟待价值发现的道路运输龙头
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The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.