The company's revenue for the first three quarters fell 15.5% year on year, net profit fell 56.9% year on year, and performance fell short of expectations. The company achieved revenue of 3.98 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2011, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%, net profit of 232 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.9%, and EPS of 0.17 yuan, lower than our previous expectations of a 40% decline. The main reason is that there was basically no profit in the third quarter. In July-September, it achieved revenue of 1.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%; realized net profit of 2.22 million yuan; and realized net profit of 108 million yuan in the third quarter of the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 98.2%. Investment losses were an important reason for the sharp decline in the company's profit in the third quarter. In July-September, the fair value loss caused by changes in the stock price of Juli Rigging shares confirmed by the company reached 185 million yuan (profit of 38 million yuan in the same period last year) and investment income of 107 million yuan (profit of 225 million yuan in the same period last year). Together, these two were 141 million yuan less than the same period last year, which is the main reason for the decline in the company's net profit. The increase in the expense ratio is also one of the reasons for the decline in the company's net profit margin. Although the company's revenue for the first three quarters fell 15.5%, sales expenses increased 19.3% year over year to 105 million yuan, financial expenses increased 12.9% year over year to 323 million yuan, and management expenses fell slightly by 1.9% to 213 million yuan; the three major expense ratios reached 16.1%, which was significantly higher than the 12.6% level in the same period last year. The gross margin of transformers is stabilizing, and the new energy business is under pressure in the short term. Since the low price of an equipment tender occurred in the second half of last year, a lag of about 6-12 months was reflected in the company's performance, the company's overall gross margin for the first half of this year was only 17.0%. Since this year, tender prices have gradually rebounded. The company's overall gross margin in July-September was 25.7%, mainly because the gross margin of transformers has stabilized and the gross margin of the new energy business has increased. As the bid price recovery is gradually reflected in the company's performance, the future profit of the transformer business is expected to improve. However, the price of polysilicon in the new energy business fell sharply in October. It is expected that the new energy business will be under high pressure in the fourth quarter, and gross margin may decline, which will have an impact on the annual performance. Adjust profit forecasts to maintain a neutral rating. We lowered the company's profit forecast. The company's operating income for 11-13 is estimated to be 5.5 billion, 6.3 billion, and 7.29 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS of 0.26, 0.39, and 0.50 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 53 times in '11 and 35 times in '12, maintaining a neutral rating.
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【申银万国证券】天威保变:公允价值损失导致利润大幅下滑,业绩低于预期
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