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【天相投资】六国化工:二铵价格上涨覆盖成本上升

天相投資 ·  Jul 25, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company's main business is the production and sale of diammonium phosphate, compound fertilizer, and monoammonium phosphate. The location advantage is obvious. It has the cost advantage of sulfuric acid supply from the controlling shareholder, and convenient water transportation has reduced transportation costs for phosphate ore, and is close to Henan, Shandong, a major downstream agricultural province. Revenue increased significantly. In the first half of 2011, the company achieved operating income of 1,575 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.37%; operating profit of 78.83 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.07%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 68.6 million yuan, an increase of 38.97%; and basic earnings per share of 0.12 yuan/share. The overall gross margin increased slightly. In the first half of the year, the company's consolidated gross profit margin was 9.87%, up 0.45 percentage points from the previous year. We believe that the increase in the price of phosphorus compound fertilizer products has effectively covered the rise in the cost of phosphate ore. Considering the continuous rise in prices of sulfur, synthetic ammonia, and phosphate ore abroad, the price of ammonium phosphate will remain high. The ability to control expenses during the period is still excellent. In the first half of the year, the company's annual expenses rate was 4.80%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 2.08%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous year; the management expense ratio was 2.58%, up slightly by 0.2 percentage points from the previous year; and the financial expenses ratio was 0.1%. We believe that during the reporting period, the company controlled the expenses for the period very well, benefiting from the advantages of scale. Fund-raising projects will be put into production during the year to contribute to performance. The 800,000 tons/year phosphate ore project will be put into operation within the year, which may contribute to performance during the year. The company's phosphate ore will be used to produce phosphate and expand the scope of the company's phosphating business, which is conducive to the company's downstream development. Regardless of the end use of the company's phosphate ore, it can effectively increase the company's overall gross profit margin. In the draft for comments on the ammonium phosphate industry issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in early '11, new production capacity was restricted, and higher environmental protection requirements and data utilization requirements were put forward for existing production capacity, requiring existing projects to be equipped with fluorine and phosphogypsum recycling equipment. This is a huge cost burden for many small enterprises in the current domestic phosphate fertilizer industry, and is extremely beneficial to the dominant enterprises in the industry. The company has phosphate resources and plans to add 240,000 tons of diammonium production capacity, further strengthening the company's leading position in the industry. Upgraded to the “Overweight” investment rating. We expect the company's earnings per share for 2011-2013 to be 0.25 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.61 yuan respectively. According to the stock price estimate on July 22, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios are 39 times, 23 times, and 16 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's future development and raise the company's investment rating to “increase holdings.” Risk warning: The increase in the price of phosphate ore is greater than the increase in the company's products.

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