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【华泰证券】国栋建设:大股东支持力度大,静待需求恢复

華泰證券 ·  Sep 28, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The decline in the boom in the wooden furniture industry has affected the demand for fiberboard. Affected by the declining boom in the real estate industry, revenue growth in the wooden furniture industry also showed a slowing trend. Although the year-on-year increase still reached 32.59%, the month-on-month growth rate is showing a continuous decline, from 3.38% month-on-month increase at the beginning of the year to a 0.29% month-on-month decline in July. Affected by this, the revenue growth rate of the fiberboard industry has declined markedly since the beginning of the year, reaching 16%; at the same time, the gross profit level of the industry has also declined sharply, from 16% to 11.55%, and the fiberboard industry is entering a boom trough. The company's profitability is poor, and profits mainly come from other earnings. Judging from the Chinese report, the company's sales revenue fell by 37.13%; the company's main raw material costs increased sharply year on year, and the decline in demand made the company unable to transfer the pressure of rising costs downstream. The company's gross profit level fell 6% year on year, to only 10.88%. Small fuelwood is the main cost of the company's products. Judging from the price of small fuelwood, from 420 yuan/ton last year to around 520 yuan this year, the company's production costs will remain high this year. At the same time, since the company's new line of production starts this year and expenses such as depreciation of fixed assets are heavily amortized, it is expected that this year's performance will be dragged down, and the company's main business will lose money this year. The majority shareholders purchased the subsidiary's assets to boost the company's performance. By transferring 90% of the shares in Sichuan Guangyuan Guodong Construction New Materials, the company will achieve an investment income of about 18.63387 million yuan (tax included), which is expected to be reflected in the annual report. This part of the revenue is the main source of the company's performance this year. The new line has already been put into operation and is expected to contribute to performance over 12 years. The company has built two high and medium density fiberboard production lines totaling 450,000 m3/year in Shuangliu County and a 220,000 m3/year high/medium density fiberboard production line in Gaoping District of Nanchong City. Currently, these production lines can be mass-produced, and the company's production line is in a trial production state, and is expected to contribute to the company's performance in 12 years. The company's new production line will mainly produce medium to high density fiberboard. The entry threshold for this type of product is higher, the gross profit level is higher than that of ordinary low density board, and the market prospects are better. Profit forecast. Guodong Construction's estimated EPS for 2011-2013 is 0.29 yuan, 0.14, and 0.29 yuan, respectively. After the company's new production line was put into operation, it became the fiberboard manufacturer with the largest production capacity in the southwest region, and has just completed targeted sales, so the company's financial pressure is not great in the short term; if demand recovers, the company's performance is expected to grow rapidly. The current stock price reflects the valuation at a low point in the industry. Since the company's main business is difficult to improve in the short term, it maintains the company's “wait and see” investment rating.

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