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【方正证券】大湖股份:剥离辅业盘活资产专注主业

方正證券 ·  Sep 1, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Key Investment Companies released the 2013 interim report, achieving operating income of 273 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 224 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1371.7%; basic earnings per share of 0.524 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1372.5%; net profit after deduction of 400,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.2%; and net cash outflow from operating activities of RMB 38.29 million, compared with a net outflow of 13.37 million yuan for the same period last year. The sharp increase in net profit was due to asset disposal income: the company established a development strategy to divest its non-main business and focus on the two main businesses of fishery products and liquor. It sold 48.92% of Shanghai Hongxin Real Estate Co., Ltd.'s shares in the first half of the year and received investment income of 257 million yuan. After tax deductions, it still had a significant impact on medium-term profit. The company's three cost rates increased by 2.37 percentage points: the company's sales expenses were 21.1 million yuan, the cost rate was 7.73%, an increase of 0.98 percentage points over the previous year, mainly due to an increase in employee benefits; management expenses of 43.5 million yuan, an increase of 15.57%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points over the previous year, mainly due to the increase in transaction management fees; we believe that the increase in sales expenses is beneficial to the long-term development of the company. The increase in management expenses is mainly beneficial to the management and maintenance of the company. Revenue from aquatic products fell 8%: The company reported revenue from aquatic products of 179 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%, which is lower than our expectations. Mainly, the three public consumption policies have led to a decline in sales of high-end fish products, and prices have stagnated. However, we are still optimistic about the company's main fishery products business. We believe that the company has gradually transitioned from focusing on resource acquisition in the past to using existing resources. Currently, the company has 1.8 million mu of freshwater aquaculture water area. Due to the complete adoption of the natural stocking model and extensive management, the output of aquatic products per unit of water is only equivalent to 1/10-1/30 of pond farming production. In the future, the company can adopt measures that do not change the principles of natural growth in the Great Lakes, etc., and there is still much room for improvement in aquatic product production. As fishing is becoming increasingly difficult and aquaculture waters are being polluted, the supply of aquatic products will become increasingly difficult. At the same time, due to the good health properties of fish meat, such as its low fat and high protein content, it has become the growth direction of people's meat consumption. The contradiction between supply and demand for aquatic products will become more and more prominent. We are firmly optimistic about the development prospects of aquatic products. Pharmaceutical industry revenue increased dramatically: the company achieved pharmaceutical revenue of 48.64 million yuan, an increase of 54% over the previous year, exceeding market expectations, but since it is a trade-oriented business, gross margin is very low, and no profit is actually made; the company has sold pharmaceutical manufacturers, and we expect that the company's drug trade business will also be divested in the future under its strategy of focusing on its main business. Liquor revenue fell by 18%, which is still the focus of the company's development: the entire liquor industry has entered a downward cycle due to excessive capacity in the liquor industry and the suppression of the three public consumption policies, and it is expected that the industry situation will still be severe this year and next two; the main prices of the company's liquor products are in the middle and low end, less affected by the three public consumption policies, and may precede the recovery of the industry. Compared to the company's fishery industry, the liquor industry has much higher gross margin and strong profitability. We believe that the company will still keep a close eye on the liquor business to get through the slump period in the industry; in fact, the company has been building a dealer team in the first half of the year, and the company's liquor has a good reputation and high market share in the local regional market, so it will definitely expand market space to the surrounding area of Changde City in the future. Profit forecasts and ratings are based on careful considerations. We expect the company's 2013-2015 EPS to be 0.53, 0.04, and 0.06 yuan, maintaining the company's holdings growth rating (if we expect situations such as mergers and acquisitions in the industry, performance may explode, and the company will definitely exceed expectations, and the 2013-2015 EPS may reach 0.53, 0.10, and 0.20 yuan). We have a different view from the market: natural disaster risk, food safety risk.

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