The company publishes its 2022 annual report. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 6.878 billion yuan, year-on-year + 20.78%, operating profit of 230 million yuan, year-on-year + 7.31%, and home net profit of 209 million yuan, + 22.83%. From a quarterly point of view, 2022Q1-Q4 realized revenue of 14.64 million yuan and net profit of 0.52 million yuan and 0.88 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the low net profit of Q4 is mainly due to the slower growth of overall consumer demand in the downstream beverage and beer industry, increased volatility, and regional control measures to limit the release of production capacity.
The company's 2023Q1 achieved operating income of 1.536 billion yuan, year-on-year + 1.59%, month-on-month-6.91%, return to the mother net profit of 53 million yuan, year-on-year + 4.67%, performance growth improved.
The release of production capacity drives business development, the "stick-in" layout improves the industrial chain, and overseas business growth is eye-catching.
In 22 years, the company's main business: cans & bottles & printing processing business income 6.139 billion yuan, year-on-year + 19.44%, gross profit 10.10%, year-on-year-0.63%; domestic operating income 6.154 billion yuan, year-on-year + 17.54%, gross profit 8.76%, year-on-year-2.32%. Overseas operating income 723 million yuan, year-on-year + 57.76%, gross profit margin 15.51%, year-on-year + 12.38%. Sub-business point of view, 1) three-piece can business to maintain rapid growth, revenue and sales growth, optimize capacity allocation, structural upgrading. 2) the endogenous and epitaxial growth of the two-piece can business has achieved a new high performance. In terms of endogenous growth, 22Q4 began trial production in Yunnan and promoted the construction of Ya'an production base. The sales volume of Cambodia's II project increased by 75% compared with the same period last year, and plans to realize the construction of Cambodia's III project in 23 years. In terms of extension growth, the company completed the acquisition of six Pacific can Chinese packaging companies with 23Q1 in 22 years. 3) the volume of canning business increased by more than 30% in 2022 compared with the same period last year. Zhongshan and Chengdu bases continue to increase lines, expand production capacity and increase product categories. The new base of 2022Q4 in Yunnan will begin trial production, and the new base in Anhui will release production capacity in 2023. 4) the aluminum bottle business continues to grow steadily in 2022 and cooperates with many well-known brands. The company focuses on product development, market segmentation, the development of a number of new products into the market.
The growth of R & D investment promotes the transformation of intelligence. The company's sales / management / finance / R & D expenses in 2022 were 0.29Universe 0.98 million yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year, they were + 1.01% /-0.94%, 5.16% and 29.11%, respectively. Among them, the larger increase in R & D expenses is mainly due to the company's increased investment in R & D, continuous innovation of technology, and comprehensive promotion of R & D projects. The 23-year Q1 sales / management / finance / R & D expenses are 0.070.53 Universe 0.23 / 10 million yuan respectively, month-on-month-36.36% Universe 19.70% Universe 11.54% Universe 150.00%.
Profit forecast and investment advice. As a leading enterprise in metal packaging, the company has a promising future. We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 370 million yuan, 460 million yuan and 570 million yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, an increase of 77%, 24% and 25% respectively over the same period last year, corresponding to PE of 12.8x, 10.3x and 8.3x. Maintain the "highly recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, product quality control risk