哔哩哔哩(9626.HK):降本初显成效 增长仍需努力

Bilibili (9626.HK): Cost reduction is beginning to show that effective growth still requires effort

第一上海 ·  06/08  · Researches

Performance summary: Q1 revenue was 5.07 billion yuan, an increase of 0.3% over the previous year, which is basically in line with the market's unanimous expectations.

The gross profit margin was 21.8%, an increase of 580 bps over the previous year, mainly due to the optimization of marketing expenses and revenue share ratios this quarter: operating profit margin was -27.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%. GAAP net loss of $630 million: Non-GAAP net loss was $1.03 billion, a year-on-year narrower of 38%, higher than the market's agreed loss of $1.14 billion. The revenue guide for the full year of 2023 is 24 to 26 billion yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 9.5% to 18.7%.

The advertising business gradually recovered, and the number of members remained the same year over year: Q1 advertising revenue increased 22.2% year over year to 1.27 billion yuan, of which performance advertising revenue increased nearly 50% year over year. Thanks to the growth of the live streaming business, Q1 value-added service revenue increased 5.1% year over year, the number of monthly active anchors increased 34% year over year, and the number of paid live streaming users increased 15% year over year. The number of members in Q1 reached 2020 million, an increase of 0.5% over the previous year, 80% of which came from annual members or automatic renewal users.

The growth rate of DAU and MAU has slowed, and the integration of channels+content promotes commercialization: DAU reached 93.7 million this quarter, an increase of 18% over the previous year: MAU increased 7.1% year over year to 315 million: DAU/MAU was 29.7%: the average daily usage time of DAU alone was 96 minutes. The company's average number of video views per day reached 4.1 billion times this quarter, with vertical screen views up 82% year over year: the average number of active subscribers increased 42% year over year, the average number of monthly submissions reached 22.5 million, an increase of 79% over the previous year, the average number of monthly interactions reached 14.2 billion, an increase of 15% over the previous year, and will develop more products and channels to help commercialize in the future.

Pay attention to the launch of new summer games: Q1 game revenue was 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, mainly due to the lack of new games being launched. The company's subsequent game reserve includes 8 domestic games and 5 overseas games. The agency game “Shine!” will be launched in the summer “The Handsome Girl” and the self-developed games “Shake It Up” and “Sluder.” The intermodal transport game “Crash: Stardom Railroad” and “Back to the Future: 1999” both received high downloads.

The target price is $23.00/HK$180.33, maintaining the buying rating: We expect the company's revenue to be $237/278/31.5 billion in 2025, with a three-year CAGR of 10.6%. Guimu's net profit was -37/-9/6 billion yuan, and the net profit margin was -15.8%/-3.3%/1.8%. Considering the increase in the company's gross margin, taking WACC as 12%, the target price reduced to 2023 is $23.00/HK$180.33. Compared with the current stock price, there is still room for 46.78%/46.49% growth, maintaining the buying rating.

Investment risk: User growth falls short of expectations: Commercialization falls short of expectations: Federal Reserve increases the risk of exceeding expectations: increased competition in the industry.

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