Introduction to this report:
Drawing on YouTube Shorts traffic and commercialization space, Story Mode is expected to stimulate community vitality and boost the recovery of advertising revenue.
Maintain an “increase in holdings” rating. Story Mode unlocks advertising value and boosts the steady recovery of the company's operations. Considering the macroeconomic environment, advertising business growth, and game product launch progress, the company's loss reduction path is clear. Adjust Bilibili 2023-2024 and add 2025 adjusted net profit to -34.89/-10.05/1,971 billion yuan (previous value 2023-2024 to 34.7/250 million yuan). The corresponding PS was 196X/1.70X/1.51X respectively, giving PS3X 2023, target price of HK$203.95, ++54.74% from the latest closing price , maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
YouTube Shorts achieves a link between short and long, and Story Mode enhances the PUGV ecosystem. Global video leader YouTube launched YouTube Shorts, a short video feature. Since September 20, India's closed beta has quickly taken over the global market and commercialization has begun. Long and short videos are linked to promote a positive ecological cycle. Domestic online video leader Bilibili is based on PUGV content. The vertical screen model StoryMode has been steadily iterated since 2020. The three entrances seamlessly connect the video ecosystem to improve content matching efficiency, opening up space for incremental traffic by promoting positive circulation among users, creators, and platforms.
Shorts became a new traffic engine, and the story broke the circle to stimulate Up's creative energy. YouTube's MAU in '22 was +4% compared to the same year, the average number of daily views of Shorts 22Q4 exceeded 50 billion, and the MAU penetration rate was over 70%. Shorts stimulated the vitality of creators and broadened the user base to drive traffic growth. Bilibili 22Q4 MAU is +28.5% year on year, and the length is stable month-on-month. Story's average daily broadcast volume is +175% year on year, and VV accounts for 30%. Story boosts content exposure and returns to stimulate enthusiasm. Benchmarking Shorts is expected to help the company continue to “break the circle” and achieve the 400 million MAU user target.
Shorts collaborates with creators to monetize, and Story unlocks the advertising value of the platform. YouTube 22Q4 advertising revenue was -7.76% year-on-year. Shorts started advertising and e-commerce monetization, launched YPP to share the benefits with creators, and the flexible conversion effect of ad pricing strategies became a new YouTube advertising engine. Bilibili 22Q4 ad revenue was -4.7% year over year, and single-user ad revenue was -20.6% year on year. There was good feedback from advertisers in various Story Mode ad formats. Benchmark Shorts is expected to release platform advertising value by increasing CPM and CTR, and promote a return to good growth in Station B's advertising revenue.
Risk warning: The recovery of the advertising industry fell short of expectations; advertiser demand continued to be sluggish; the commercialization progress of StoryMode fell short of expectations, and the company's marketing investment was higher than expected.